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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kormac who wrote (60902)	2/25/2000 8:48:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: Money Flows - Well Seppo - that says it all doesn't it... I still think that we are right at a sentiment turn for Oil's here. We had NBC doing their "America Held Hostage" - the coming Oil crisis piece, Barron's did a 2nd tier piece on the value in the Oilpatch - "too cheap to ignore" - rather simple & to the point... Just wait untill OPEC throw's the world a "bone" with their "Big Bull-esque" - TRICKLE... and a trickle is all they be going to get... THEN ! - part deaux of the BOOM 2000-2001 Story unfolds; this is when Crude could very realistically peak at a speculative bubble of $40 - I really think we see $40 touched just prior to, or shortly after the first peak driving season draws around Memorial Day and if not then - by the end of the summer driving season "if" OPEC complies with their "trickle." Wait untill everyone realizes a cold hard fact of life here - that being: IT"S TOO LITTLE - TOO LATE ! ... from OPEC. The trickle will be too little - and it's too late to matter. Domestic supply can not be replenished quickly enough to matter and gasoline prices at the pump will be the fuel for the sentiment fire - bank on it. I don't pretend to know if we'll see $2; but folks; gasoline is going higher - bank on it. The American public has been calmed that this is only a temporary blip and via the SPR's, or Clinton-Richardson lobbying of OPEC - that they not only feel our pain, but they will kiss it and make it better.... NOT ! Too little too late - will create some real pain; and we have just seen the tip of the OPEC bashing and speculative move in crude & gasoline futures. Crude futures here are a very strong indicator that the shorts have virtually conceeded to the undeniable facts of supply & demand. We have very strong demand and dangerously low historic supply levels - they know they are literally playing with fire if they try to run Crude short here... Sure, we may get a $3 relief selloff on the intial indications that OPEC will cut - as a profit taking, position trimming reaction. But, once the final agreement comes out and we see a few strong compliance reports - then the warm driving season demand kicks in and more strong API draws - BOOM ! the futures market will turn & run for crude oil... Mid $30's are a given imho. Nat Gas is the sleeper play; especially strong top tier E&P players like EOG NBL BR - literally gifts here. Since Greenspan is on record for NOT seeing ANY inflationary pressures other than Oil - perhaps Oil is really a positive double edged sword for him ? Can Crude Oil's rise to the mid $30's - slow the economy enough to ease the need for further rate hikes ? - potentially the best of both worlds ? Can the free markets if left alone - potentially perform a self-balancing act ?