February 24, 2000, New York Times
THE OVERVIEW
Shock and Recriminations in Bush Camp
After Losses
By RICHARD L. BERKE
WASHINGTON, Feb. 23 --One
day after Gov. George W.
Bush's twin losses to Senator John
McCain in Michigan and Arizona, many
of his staunchest supporters said they
were shellshocked. And Mr. Bush
himself regrouped by agreeing to a
debate in Los Angeles next week, by
ripping up his schedule to add a trip this
weekend to Washington State, where
Mr. McCain is waging an energetic race,
and by questioning the senator's
Republican credentials.
The voting on Tuesday not only revived
the threat of defections to the McCain
camp, but also set off recriminations
from inside and outside the Bush
organization, including members of
Congress and the Republican National
Committee who had eagerly rallied
behind Mr. Bush.
They complained about everything from
Mr. Bush's lavish spending in Arizona --
where Mr. McCain was the favorite son
-- to his embrace from Pat Robertson,
the founder of the Christian Coalition, to
his decision to blame his defeat in
Michigan on Democrats who "hijack the
primary to help Al Gore."
"Some R.N.C. members are saying:
'What is going on here? He's getting his
hat handed to him and he can't put down
the rebellion,' " said Steve Duprey,
chairman of the Republican Party in New
Hampshire who has remained neutral.
"And that makes them nervous. They're
also nervous about the incredible number
of new people signing on to vote for
McCain."
Representative Fred Upton of Michigan,
an early Bush supporter, said he was
especially disturbed by Mr. Bush's
reaching out to religious conservatives.
"This Robertson stuff and the hard turn
to the right really hurt him," Mr. Upton
said. "I think Bush is still the favorite if you're at the betting table. But he's
got to change his message and be inclusive."
Despite the hand-wringing, Mr. Bush insisted he was optimistic because
to win the nomination Mr. McCain, who has drawn much of his support
from independents or Democrats, must still do something he has not
demonstrated he can do: beat Mr. Bush among Republicans.
As the campaign advances to several states where only registered
Republicans can vote in primaries, in particular New York, Mr. Bush
said his path would become easier.
"I find it amazing that somebody running for president as a Republican
has to reach out to Republicans for the vote," Mr. Bush said at a news
conference in Los Angeles.
Mr. McCain quickly sought to expand his base and reintroduce himself
as as conservative, telling voters in Seattle, "I'm a proud conservative
Republican. I'm a Reagan Republican. I have no doubt about that. I have
to convince and tell our Republican establishment, It's great over here;
come on in, join us."
Mr. McCain asserted he would do well in several states with closed
primaries, particularly Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
"Those states, I guarantee you, I can win," he said in an interview.
The question, he continued, was whether he could make headway among
Republicans in the South and the Midwest and California, a state that
allows Democrats and independents to vote but only counts Republicans
in determining who wins convention delegates.
Some of Mr. Bush's supporters fear that if Mr. McCain continues to win
contests and pick up steam he could crack the governor's hold on
bedrock Republicans. In fact, a New York Times/CBS News Poll in
New York, where only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary
on March 7, found that Mr. Bush holds only a slight lead over Mr.
McCain.
One explanation for the worry among Bush backers that Mr. McCain
could attract Republican voters is that there now seems to be a sense that
anything could happen, particularly since the Bush campaign's vow that it
would stop Mr. McCain in Michigan did not come to pass.
Tuesday's results upended the dynamic in the Republican camps instantly.
After his victory in South Carolina on Saturday, Mr. Bush began looking
past Mr. McCain and citing Vice President Al Gore in his speeches.
Today, Mr. Bush was back to deriding Mr. McCain.
And it was Mr. McCain who vowed to "beat Al Gore like a drum."
In the short term, the outcome places fresh pressure on Mr. Bush in the
contests on Tuesday in Virginia, Washington State and North Dakota,
states that had not been considered high priorities. While Mr. Bush's
advisers have thought he had an edge in Virginia because of its
conservative tilt, they said they were now worried that Washington, with
its more moderate electorate, would be more suited to Mr. McCain.
The Bush campaign today repeatedly revised its schedule to adjust to a
McCain threat in Washington. Aides at first settled on a plan for the
governor to stump in Virginia on Monday and Tuesday, but now he
intends to leave Texas on Sunday to campaign in Washington State for at
least a day and a half.
"The big fear of what could happen next is not to have a win on Tuesday
in the North Dakota, Washington and Virginia primaries," said a lobbyist
here who is a Bush adviser.
"That would be trouble."
He added: "Everybody's in general agreement that the next 48 hours are
critical in terms of, 'Does the press go in full swoon for McCain again?'
All bets are off if in the next 48 hours McCain appears to be getting a big
bounce."
Mr. McCain's advisers said they were also rethinking their strategy and
expected to put more effort into Virginia.
Even with the immediate focus on next week, advisers to Mr. Bush and
Mr. McCain said they were most concerned about the flurry of contests
on March 7 and March 14.
"It's going to be a tong war between now and the 14th," said Ron
Kaufman, a Bush supporter.
In fact, aides on both sides said the most crucial skirmish would be in
California, the biggest prize of all, which holds its primary on March 7.
That explains why after days in which Bush advisers had suggested that
the governor might not take part in a debate in Los Angeles on March 2,
Mr. Bush agreed today to appear.
The specter of a protracted race also threatened to drain Mr. Bush's
treasury, even though he has swamped Mr. McCain financially. One
Bush aide said the campaign would now have to draw from an account it
had intended to use against Mr. Gore in the spring and summer.
"We're dipping into our Gore pool," the aide said.
Many Bush supporters interviewed today did not hesitate to criticize the
governor's campaign. Several said while they still expected Mr. Bush to
capture the nomination, they were not nearly as certain as they were even
a day ago.
Asked if he was confident that Mr. Bush would be the nominee,
Representative Vernon J. Ehlers of Michigan, who supports the
governor, said: "I would be much much more confident if he had
clobbered McCain. I think it would have been over then."
Representative Upton said he was approached this morning by a
distraught Bush backer at a Rotary Club meeting who fretted that the
governor had moved too far to the right. "A man gave me a compass to
put in my pocket. He said, 'Give this to George Bush. He lost his way
after South Carolina,' " Mr. Upton said.
And after the votes were counted on Tuesday, he said, a woman in tears
approached him at an event in Kalamazoo to complain about Mr. Bush's
ties to the religious right -- and the same people who backed Mr.
Robertson's bid for president against his father. Mr. Upton recalled: "She
said, 'I just can't believe that George W. sidled up to the same folks who
set out to destroy his dad here in Michigan in 1988.' "
Mr. McCain's aides were jubilant, but they acknowledged that they were
almost as shocked by the Michigan outcome as the Bush operatives.
Today, Dan Schnur, Mr. McCain's communications director, and
Thomas Rath, a Bush adviser, used identical language to describe the
road ahead: "uncharted waters."
"This is like the Twilight Zone of presidential nominee selection," Mr.
Rath said. "I don't think anybody ought to be real confident of anything
this morning." As for the Bush operation, he added, "We're ready for
some days of no surprises." |
