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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (76587)	2/26/2000 9:07:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, few "counter comments", if indeed their is ample supply of RDRAM, why is the price staying high? Under typical free market circumstances, excess supply will cause price depression. Maybe there is still some shortage? Granted, not all motherboard producers are "on board", but that might very well be because the manufacture of these boards require a greater tolerances discipline than traditional momo, just as all other future GHz type boards will. The same is true with heat dissipation within the chips (running hot), the higher the switching speed and the higher will be the heat generation, maybe SiGe may alleviate some of this but I see no one getting on that band wagon in DRAM. In time finer features (and thus lower switching voltages) will partially remedy this. IMHO, DDR DRAM will run into similar problems for the same reasons. Last, I doubt that INTC's support is due to their wanting to be able to make money on the stock, why risk a $15 BB business for a one time lousy $2 to $5 billions gain on the (assuming their selling between $200 to $500/share) stock. Good luck out there. The bears are having a fine party right now (not in RMBS <G>), but I doubt this is the big one, yet, so it might be wise to start and select some covering points few more percents under the current market. Until the back of the nifty 100 is broken (and we start to see initial signs with MSFT and IBM, but far from it in the SOX), the real bear is not yet here. For that we will need good drying up of liquidity. AG is helping with the gradual rise in rates, but the government is countering this (election year?) by soaking the $30 years bond, off budget or emergency funding of various programss (look at the "big Dig in Boston, and I am sure their are many other "Projects" like that all over the place) and additional liquidity must be leaking out of the Japanese Postal system, a huge "reserve" of excess liquidity. All, just IMHO. Zeev