Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (41372)	2/25/2000 6:48:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Anindo, i know the speculative sectors are ignoring interest rates at this time. however, this is not going to go on indefinitely, and i believe when it ends, it will end with a swift and violent move. after all, most of the margin debt is concentrated in precisely these sectors. SWC, i got real lucky and sold it 1/8 below it's high. i had planned in advance to sell on a day when palladium would rise more than 50 bucks at the open and as luck would have it, that was the high in SWC, in spite of the rise in palladium continuing on for a few days. right now i'm eyeing SWC for a possible re-entry. it's now approaching support in the 35 area, a former high. i still think it makes an excellent long term investment, as demand for PGM's can only increase. harsher environmental legislation and new applications all favor that scenario. at the same time, supply seems subject to a great deal of uncertainty due to the Russians inability to make long promised deliveries. the car manufacturers will pay any price to ensure supply...i think prices would have to climb to $1,500/oz. to spur some research into alternatives. the Russian situation is unfortunately not open to scrutiny. one can only guess what's happening there. imo, the stockpiles have been used up. rumor has it that the Norilsk mines are close to exhaustion, but i personally don't lend too much credence to those. still, Russia clearly supplies less and less, year after year. my recommendation would be to begin to accumulate SWC soon, using the Michael Burke approach of buying in thirds. remind me again on Monday...i have to look a bit more closely into the very latest developments. TOCOM has recently suspended the free market in palladium to let the shorts off the hook, and that has led to a big correction. the retracement could well become deeper if the Russians make good on their latest promise to deliver the first metal in about two weeks time. regards, hb

To: fedhead who wrote (41372)	2/25/2000 6:55:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

Anindo: "The biotechs, B2B are totally ignoring the rising rate environment." Rising rates lowers the present value of future earnings, BUT maybe it works inversely on present losses! <g>

To: fedhead who wrote (41372)	2/25/2000 7:33:00 PM
From: superdow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I don't expect any significant correction in nazdaq- money will continue to pour in-many of my co-workers have and are moving money from indexed funds and bloated large cap funds into emerging growth, tech funds. Who wants a 20 percent return on an sp index fund (last year's return (you know where it stands this year)), or an even lower return on pigs like fidelty growth company fund when other smaller tech mutuals on your 401k platter show annual gains of 50 to 100 percent.