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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (49640)	2/25/2000 10:13:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116796

Very good Ron, You picked up on that also.

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (49640)	2/26/2000 2:11:00 AM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

From the Privateer........... Given the history of Gold over the past three years or so, it is fitting that the price should fall back below $US 300 on the same day that the Dow was falling below 10000. Many years ago, when it became clear that Gold was acting in reverse of its historical norm, that is, the price was FALLING at every critical financial juncture instead of rising, The Privateer coined a phrase to describe what was going on. We call it the Reverse Barometer. It is plain to see that Gold's function as a "reverse barometer" is working perfectly. The action on the Dow since it hit its 2000 high on Jan. 14 is almost exactly like the action on the Japanese Nikkei ten years ago, at the start of its long bear market in January 1990. The US Treasury yield curve is still inverted. There is obviously something HUGE going on just below the surface, but it is obscured by the continuing strength of the Nasdaq and by a spurt in the U.S. Dollar. We have known for a very long time that Gold is a "political metal", simply because sound money and modern politics are like oil and water, they don't mix. But watching Gold over the past decade has shown us that the lower the price goes, the worse the situation is. It is no coincidence that Gold fell to almost the $US 250 level in the middle of last year, just as the Fed was beginning to bite the bullet and raise U.S. interest rates. We have also found that when a serious situation in the financial system is approaching a crisis point, one of the most infallible lead indicators is a sharp fall in the $US Gold price. This observation was proven repeatedly during the Asian Crisis of 1997 and the world crisis of 1998/early 1999. At each peak of the crisis, the Gold "reverse barometer" gave the signal - Gold fell - often sharply. Re-setting The Barometer? However, since Gold's first big spike above $US 300 last Sept/Oct., there has been a change in the working of the barometer. In the initial stages of a worsening of the financial situation, Gold has started to again do what it has done throughout history. It has spiked UP! It did so in Sept/Oct last year and it did so again three weeks ago. Each time, Gold has been put "back in the bottle", it has fallen below $US 300. Unlike all the panics of early 1997 to mid 1999, it has NOT fallen back to previous lows. The jury is still out on this one, of course, Gold is still falling. But we are sure that a big financial crisis is on the horizon. No, not because the Dow has fallen back below 10000 - or even because Gold has fallen back below $US 300. It is because of a speech made by President Clinton on Thursday, February 24. In his speech, Mr Clinton announced that under his stewardship, the Treasury was firming up plans to pay $US 300 Billion off the national debt by the end of the year. He also announced plans for a domestic "Economic Summit" on April 5, bringing together top CEOs, economists, and "other experts" to discuss "the big, cutting edge issues still before us" Say WHAT? We have a lot more to say about Mr Clinton's announcement in the upcoming issue of The Privateer (published on Feb. 27). Suffice it to say here that Mr Clinton made this bravura announcement on the day before the Dow tanked below the 10000 level and the Dollar soared. Incompatible reactions, you might think, unless you consider the possibility that the rise in the Dollar is a result of a repatriation of capital back into the U.S.. A "reverse flight to quality", perhaps? Or a need to shore up some very shaky domestic financial situations? At any rate, Mr Clinton is proposing a $US 300 Billion payout of national debt this year, with weeks of having presented the biggest annual budget in U.S. history. He also wants to discuss some "cutting edge issues" at a meeting on April 5. Again, suffice it to say here that Mr Clinton would not want a situation in which he was holding forth on the bright future of America with a backdrop of a plummetting stock and/or bond market. There are going to be some BIG efforts made over the next month to plug the holes in the U.S. financial ship of state. What that means for Gold in the immediate future is impossible to say. For the past six months, the big spikes in the $US Gold price have been UP, not DOWN. That is not the way The Privateer's reverse barometer has been working since the late 1980s. We know that the pressure to keep a lid on the Gold price is going to grow, We don't know if - yet again - it will be successful. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- the-privateer.com