To: foundation who wrote (6924 ) 2/25/2000 8:53:00 PM From: cfoe Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
Some thoughts on AT&T & SBC sticking with their legacy wireless systems vs. how they are dealing with broadband. I have been thinking about why the optics area is attracting so much investor enthusiasm and is seemingly (at least for now) immune to the problems with most other stocks. I see two forces at work - the need for the established telephone companies to upgrade their systems to broadband - whether optics, cable or dsl - and the phone companies having the financial resources to do this (whether through monopoly pricing with the RBOCS and/or the huge surpluses they have built up over the years). Notice that even though this is going to take huge investments, I know of no legacy phone company that is publicly defending their legacy wireline phone systems. None are saying slow is better. They are not trying to hold back progress. I know the RBOCs tried for a while with DSL, but that was swept away by competition and customer demand. Instead they are all pouring multi-billions into getting with broadband in one form or another. So what does all this have to do with wireless? I think wireless is where faster wireline was just before this broadband explosion. Many of the phone companies probably cannot afford to make big investments in wireless when they are pouring money into optics, etc. So if they can delay, or avoid, having to do this, they will try. However, I believe events will overtake them in the form of competition and customer demand in the wireless area just as it did in broadband. And right now it appears that QCOM has the first, and for now only, answers to wireless broadband. I further believe that once wireless broadband applications become available to business, the demand for this capability will really take off. Comments?