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Technology Stocks : Advanced Radio Telecom (ARTT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (996)	2/25/2000 11:19:00 PM
From: Obewon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1176

Like you, I officially an HOLDing my shares. Personally, I don't see the company worth any more than $30 until they start generating some significant revenue growth but I don't want to sell while the momentum is still upward. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock hits $60 within a couple months but at the same time I know it could be back to $20 easily if the market tanks. It isn't a stock that trades on fundamentals so anything can happen. Though it is not evident right now, the Feds moves to raise interest rates is going to have a large effect on the telecom market eventually. All of these companies are raising billions of dollars in the markets through either junk bond offerings or secondary stock offerings. As long as the stock markets continue to rise at 30%/year (very unlikely) the market will continue accept these offerings since alot of people cannot seem to redeploy their capital fast enough. However, just one bad year (markets down 15% or more)will be enough to dry up this market (temporarily at least) such that many of these small telcos will have cash flow and debt servicing problems. Combine that with the fact that the "pooling " method of accounting is going away and that the robust S&P 500 company earnings growth we have taken for granted over the past eight years is going to start being sqeezed next year due to the loss of this accounting method and you get the idea that the music is going to stop and ALOT of companies are going to be missing chairs. The fact that Quest has a big stake in seeing the company succeed is certainly positive for the future of the Company but what is really needed right now is some indication that the Company can successfully execute a viable business plan. So far they have stuck out twice. Obewon/Valuation Guy