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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (28308)	2/26/2000 2:08:00 AM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

The Fed must realize it's squeezing the life out of a big chunk of the market (as evidenced by the Dow), so I suspect it will tread a little more lightly going forward. Is that a prediction of no change in March? I don't see how that's possible at this point. --QS

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (28308)	2/27/2000 1:11:00 AM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

Good point, Charles: 401k money is not an end-of-year distribution. I agree, the US economy is basically sound. Except that it is true that people are borrowing heavily against their stock market gains, resulting in spending that exceeds earnings (according to "The Economist" magazine). That can't go on forever. You can't make the big bucks in the market, spend the profits in stores, and still have the market rise, can you? Only if someone else buys the stocks because of their higher earnings, I suppose. I don't know, this logic sounds bubble-like to me... Y2K: yes, I think there's tons of corporate money ready to be pumped into the products of the high-tech companies. For that reason, the economy should grow nicely through this year. It's 2001 that concerns me there. But a wicked decline in the NYSE isn't a trifling event, even if the NASDAQ and big techs continue to rise. The NYSE is where most of our nation's corporate wealth "lives". Well, I disagree about the Fed. I think they've lost much of their power to control the economy, and raising the rates they control doesn't do much to the real economy. Besides, thus far their increases have been mere responses to what had already happened in the bond market. But bonds have suddenly rallied--so now will the Fed raise rates again, even though long-term rates have declined in recent weeks? I've assumed that they will, but who knows... Yes, the trend in SUNW is still with "us" (I say "us" only because I like SUNW, not because I actually own any of their stock directly). I've made a decent 8% jumping in and out of my Fidelity mutual funds in the past month and a half. But SUNW has done better than that, I think. I don't know. Divergences are troubling to me. They hint at an upcoming change, I think. Since what we've had is the greatest bull market of the century, the change would necessarily be bad. It's already bad for the average investor who doesn't have most of his money in the high techs. Charles, you don't need to be right even half the time if you let your winners run and cut your losses short. Only about half of my trades in the past year have been winners, yet I'm up by 60% or so (especially nice considering all the days I was 100% in cash). Always nice to chat with you. Wish I had more time lately. Hey, I'm helping SUN, moonlighting as a technical reviewer for an upcoming book on Java to be published by Wrox! That's one of the reasons you don't hear from me that much lately on SI. Wrox pays me to write commentary and tell them my opinions! Another curious item: I had an interview at EMC (I know that's a favorite of many SUNW fans). There are some problems there... Kevin