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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (12143)	2/26/2000 9:02:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

excellent show today as I2 pointed out. Take home messages were 1)will not be buying back in until indicators say so and this could be a long time with usual cyclical bear market running 6-18 months and has gone as long as 2 years. He gave the example of 1929 where a lot of smart people got out of the market before the crash but then got back in on a sucker rally that made up 50% of initial loss. These people who got back in too early got demolished with everyone else. Of course he points out in no way shape or form is he looking for a 1929 type drop. 2)spent time discussing secular(very long lasting overiding trend) and cyclical bear markets. Pointed out the interesting phenomena that secular bull and bear trends have had a habit of running in about 17 year cycles. Since the current bull secular trend started in 1982 it has not passed his attention that this current probable bear market is starting around 17 years after the last secular bear trend/market. Have we started a new secular bear or is this just a possible cyclical bear market. No way to tell but with money in cash he's comfortable and doesn't have to make that determination now but can watch as things unfold Marc

To: marc ultra who wrote (12143)	2/26/2000 10:23:00 PM
From: Lars	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

* Market Summary * 02/25/00 02/18/00 %Change S&P 500 1,333.36 1,346.09 -.95% Dow Jones 9,862.12 10,219.52 -3.50% NASD Comp 4,590.49 4,411.74 +4.05% Russell 2000 556.74 545.68 +2.03% SOX Index 1,032.02 935.94 +10.27% Value Line 394.35 400.39 -1.51% MS Growth 447.05 470.20 -4.92% MS Cyclical 469.58 482.87 -2.75% T - Bill 5.62% 5.57% +5 BP Long Bond 6.15% 6.15% UNCH Gold - Oz-Near Month $294.60 $307.30 -$12.70 Silver - Oz-Near Month $5.09 $5.28 -$.19 January Durable Goods Orders fall -1.3% Jobless Claims fell -7,000 to 278,000 - Four Week Moving Average rose +3,000 to 286,500 Existing Home Sales for January fell -10.7% Fourth Quarter GDP Revised To +6.9%