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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (95285)	2/26/2000 9:17:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576923

Re: Late Q4 sounds a lot more believable. I think Intel is sandbagging. Q4 2000 will almost certainly have 1.2 to 1.5 GHZ Thunderbirds, with lots of motherboard support and business SKUs from AMD. Sanders has been very cautious about his forward looking statements since the lawsuits of last year, and he has said that the Dresden process has been proven and has good yields. We've also been told that the Dresden process has a feature size 25% smaller than Austin, plus some minor additional benefit from copper - they're sure to get a few hundred additional mhz out of the process. We also know that Austin Aluminum parts run at a GHZ (from the overclockers who are starting to get their hands on the "800" and higher parts). Intel has no choice, unless Coppermine will ramp to 1.2GHZ in volume, and every indication has been that 1.0 or 1.1 will be it for Coppermine. Intel has to have volume Willamette for Q4. If they were to go into Q4 200-300 MHZ down from AMD, they'd stand to lose a substantial part of that top 10% of the market where they, as a corporation, make most of their profits. Those 2-3 million high end processors sold each quarter represent about $1 Billion in profit - everything else Intel does, the other 20+ million processors, networking, mother boards, chipsets, etc. contribute less to profits than the couple million CPUs that sell for $400 to $800 each. I think Intel will have volume Willamette in Q4 because it has no choice. If it doesn't... Regards, Dan