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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jack bittner who wrote (131)	2/27/2000 11:12:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

jack, Isn't the loch-up expiration after 90 days? If so, that would be Somewhere around May 4th. Thanks, Brian

To: jack bittner who wrote (131)	2/27/2000 2:59:00 PM
From: mact	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

Jack, i too am long AVNX...nobody has a great handle on their technology cause they do not explicitly describe it at their website or within their S1 filing...Andy seems to know people at AVNX and APAT and perhaps he is correct in his assumptions, but until i see some documentation, it is all hearsay...all i can base my decisions are on the facts that are available to me now which are: 1. Pioneer consulting says the mkt. for just the optical switching sector will reach 31B by 2005(almost zilch now)...there is tremendous oppurtunity here. 2. AVNX is backed by Sequia, Mayfield, Crosspoint, and Jafco...lead UW is MSDW...u do not want to bet against this team. 3. They currently make 5 products: a)PowerFilter--a proprietary tunable filter multiplexer and demultiplexer that is being shipped...this reduces signal loss and decreases the amt. of filters needed...i do not know if they use 50 or 100 GHz filter...also do not know if they use grating techniques or dispersion compensation fiber but each have their advantages and disadavntages...currently almost all of their rev's are from their filter sales. b)PowerMux--a high density WDM processor...hard to say at this point how many channels they can split the photon into...but the potential to do 1000 is already there as Bell Labs has already proved this...this product is also being shipped. c)PowerShaper--proprietary chromatic dispersion compensator that will enhance bandwith and distance limitations by reshaping dispersion of incoming wavelengths at the receiving end...currently in beta testing. d)PowerExchange--reconfigurable add/drop multiplexer...in beta testing. e)SuperPowerShaper--dont know much about this product other than its description as a variable chromatic slope dispersion compensator...in beta testing also. As u can see, while the filter makes up most of their curent rev's, this will soon change and when news comes out on the successful beta testing of these other products, this co. should pick up even more momentum. 4. they curently have 25 US patents that have been filed and 4 foreign patents...they will protect their technology. 5. while i too share Andy's concern of the early lock-up release, in the big picture, it is not that big of a deal...JNPR had the same type of agreement with their UW's...while the stock went down abit after this announcement, it was very shortlived and the ramp-up picked right back up again...since the float wasnt huge on AVNX, the secodary offering will be gobbled up by institutions very quickly...there are many examples of co's skyrocketing the day the secondary shares start to trade hence it is not as detrimental as it use to be...also, the UW's will allow this type of deal only for co's that they know will be resilient to this type of action...we should be thinking longterm/big picture here, not momentum swing trading...jmho. 6.their rev's for last yr was only 500K, for the first 6 months of this fiscal yr, rev. had increased to 11M...they have explosive rev. growth and i bet with every financial release for the next yr or two, we will cont. to see explosive growth which will run the price up even more...look at SCMR's current 31B mkt cap...they came public with one sale of 13M to Williams Comm. and they havent been slowed down yet. While i am the last person on the planet that i would consider an expert on fiberoptic technology, this is the last stock i would short...there is too much potential here...why would anyone short a stock in the hottest sector with awesome future rev. potential that is backed by MSDW?...with patience, we will learn more about their products...personally, i wouldnt bet against any fiberoptic company this entire yr...jmho. mact