Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (18845)	2/27/2000 1:34:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Subject: Risk and Reward Warning: This is long even by my standards. 100 and all, I think we certainly have the right idea [of buying before an enabling tornado forms.] But as I posted to Lindy I feel our new view carries with it new risks. I disagree insofar as my thinking about that goes. To reiterate my idea, my previous thinking that I explained requires that certain news events dictate that a coming tornado is expected with a reasonable degree of certainty at the least. I believe I wrote that I'd prefer that the news tell us that the tornado is a slam dunk. For reasons that will be apparent toward the end of this missive, I'm now amending my thoughts to clarify that the news must make it obvious that a tornado will be forthcoming. If Cisco's news about ELON is the best there is pointing toward the likelihood of a tornado, I don't see a looming, obvious tornado. I'm not a student of ELON so I'm not ignoring that there might be other information that does make the tornado obvious. No one ever said Gorilla investing was risk FREE. No, but the following remarks including the italicized emphasis can be found in the introduction of both manuals: "For the gorilla game proper, to meet the specific needs of a risk-averse and capital-constrained investor, we have imposed a much tighter set of constraints than govern the bulk of high-tech investors currently in the market. We ask our more sophisticated readers to respect that game, therefore, even as they go about finding ways to get around it." Only we, each individual investor making a decision one at a time, can decide whether we're sticking to the game or finding ways to get around it. It takes a lot more discipline to vary from the game only to a very slight degree than to vary from the game dramatically with the hope that we can prevent leaving too much money on the table. We must remember that trying to avoid leaving too much on the table is tantamount to trying not to play a gorilla game. The authors go so far as to tell us without mincing any words that "It leaves money on the table. There are huge windfalls in high tech that will never come your way if you play the gorilla game." Could they have made their intention any clearer? No. When I referred to a news event(s) rendering a tornado an obvious conclusion, I'm thinking about that in context of what the authors specifically advise us. In the very same paragrpah as the one about leaving money on the table, they wrote, "If you like to gamble, if you like to play a hunch, if you like to take the road less traveled, this is not for you. More than anything else, this game requires maintaining a firm grasp on the obvious. [My emphasis.] You may be surprised to learn how hard that is." Indeed. I sense that the discussion going on right now in the folder proves that it's hard. It requires lots of discipline! Is the perception of ELON's tornado a firm grasp of the obvious? Not to me, but maybe that's because I haven't studied the product or the industry trends. Having read that phrase about having a firm grasp on the obvious, that is my renewed criterion. I invite the risk-averse among us to think similarly. If thinking that an enabling tornado will come requires anything more than a firm grasp of the obvious, investing prior to that moment is NOT gorilla gaming in my mind. I have no problem with Lindy choosing to buy ELON with the anticipation (hope) that it goes to $200 so he can soon sell it. But that also is not gorilla gaming and he would be the first to tell us so. Let's not forget that we have investing novices and gorilla-game novices hanging out here who deserve that clarification. I see people talking about ten and twenty baggers. As much respect as people around here seem to have for some of the folder's elder leadership, our real mentor is Robert who bought Microsoft nearly one-and-a-half decades ago at IPO pricing and STILL owns the stock. In fact, the authors remind us of that wonderful example of gorilla gaming that can achieve a two-hundred bagger! As we consider this and other possible tweaking of the system, I think we should ask ourselves one simple question: will this tweak still allow us to safely achieve a 200 bagger? --Mike Buckley