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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (76632)	2/27/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 132070

Earlie, yes, I think we will have to agree to disagree. But, take into account few evolving facts, there are already three DRAM mass producers in full production of RDRAM, Samsung, NEC and Toshiba (most of the latter two for PSII, but that will not swallow more than about 3 MM units in the current quarter). Two additional DRAM producers (Infineon and Hyunday) have their RDRAM already validated and are ramping up production. aAt least two additional majors will be in full production by the end of the year. I think that current guestimates are that this quarter will see 10 MM RDRAM units being shipped. As for competition from DDR DRAM or the fact that currently DDR DRAM is on INTC's road map for servers, I should mention that the server market soaks no more than 10% of the total DRAM market, and that DDR DRAM is probably a full year behind RDRAM in validation. Thus fiascos as we saw last year with the 820 are to be expected with DDR DRAM during the next few months, if such occur and if the short position in RMBS has not been reduced markedly in the most recent squeeze, additional squeeze may indeed occur. I agree with you that the shorts' quality of DD is far better than that of the longs, but they may be erring in using traditional fundamental measures of valuation in an era where these have proven not to work (they may be right in the long term, but could be wiped out before that if they do not use safe "error recognition" exit points), so at this point, more weight should be put on technical analysis than trying to forecast the future success or lack thereof of any technology, RDRAM, the new craze in the superconductors, optical communications and the biotech (the most dangerous to the market, IMHO, since it is froth of the same magnitude we saw in the dot.com sector, and the latter is already buckling, the biotechs will simply crash). Good luck out there, and lets have agreeable disagreements. Zeev