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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (5287)	2/27/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

TA on markets: cash building on sidelines in big way money flying into dollar as currency main instruments are the 30yr TBond, 10yr TNote US$ is rising in opposite fashion to Euro (think DMark) all the while, the JapYen is asleep as the wheel doing nada the currency triangle now is pure dollar/euro with US$ winning S&P is at the lower boundary on a downtrend channel, ripe for rebound reflex, but is still weak TBonds and TNotes are showing Cup&Handle reversals now 30yr TBond is breaking out nicely, with yields dropping 10yr TNote is on verge of breaking out, imo 3month TBill is flatlining quiet a bond rally is to continue at long and intermediate ends gold, silver, copper are down sharply first catalyst is slowdown in housing from higher rates copper is often called the "economy's gold" it has real uses in housing and elsewhere, responding to slowdowns Greenshit seems not to care technology is booming, much of rest of economy might indeed be slowing down he seems willing to slow down everything more in order to put some drag on that which he fails to comprehend second catalyst is reduced inflationary fears Greenshit hasnt given much emphasis to empty inflation claims big risk: Greenyspan raises rates just when a gradual lessening of upside demand pressure after the Y2K event... NAPM managers are quoted in InvBusDaily as saying the strong Q4 just reported was in part due to special factors, implying Y2K... now the Fed might raise rates just when the economy naturally slows its torrid pace... ABOLISH THE FED, LET LAISSEZ FAIRE WORK crude oil is at the upper boundary of its uptrend channel it is due for a pullback, but still is quite strong widespread dissension among OPEC and other oil producers is necessary to bring out greater supply Saudi oil minister went on record saying he considered the $20-25 per barrel price range as "ideal" VIX volatility index is registering near extreme levels again VIX is in the 30 neighborhood, very bullish for stocks my guess is S&P will be beneficiary Advance-Decline Line is looking pathetic it is a cumulative measure of rising minus declining stocks I havent seen it look this bad in almost a couple years as in autumn of 1998 great cover article in Bearons this weekend purports the handheld device phenomenon is ephemeral believes wireless phones and related devices will put PDA's in the dust Psion CEO seems the sharpest of all talks about three standards: WAP - internet wireless microbrowser Bluetooth - connectivity among all camps EPOC - operating system software forgot to mention: CDMA - hardware platform aint it great that Microsoft will be watching this battle? playing catchup with their bloated, buggy, and late WindowsCE software? what few have seemed to discuss lately is the upcoming FTC policy change whereby incoming calls to cellphones will cost nothing to the cellphone owner... this will bring about a supercharge to wireless another topic that seems not be discussed much is the upcoming explosion of Bus-Bus wireless internet usage if either or both have been discussed, sorry, I missed it Psion CEO claims that personal data will soon be located on internet sites for access, rather than currently on own our cellphones handhelds are but a shooting star over the wireless horizon the PalmTop IPO will be great, but check its progress in three years... toast / Jim Willie Beemr BabyDoll

To: Voltaire who wrote (5287)	2/27/2000 10:31:00 AM
From: alias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

V, Thanks for feedback on my homework "analysis" of your friend, Cree and covered calls. I now want to work/study on two hypothetical covered call situations using "real-time" data (today anyway) using two stocks most on this board are familiar. 1. We have Mr Porch Rat. He has a portfolio which consists of 194 shares/$256.00 per of JDSU (I'm using 194 since the value is $50,000. K.I.S.S principal here.) Mr. Rat wants some income from that holding between now and sometime in April. What are reasonable CC options? To be honest, I've gone to Schwab and looked at various call prices and expiration dates etc, but I don't know how to evaluate them. If I could have one date/price evaluated then I would have a base analysis upon which to compare and evaluate all of them as to upsides and downsides. Of course, possible split run and anticipated/hoped for S&P entry creates increased volitality on JDSU which may or may not create/skew the way a covered call might normally be written on this stock but since many of us here hold JDSU might as well study it a bit. 2. Mr Rat also has a separate portfolio consisting of 374 shares of Qcom ($50,000) and would like to cover this also. Options? Again, this homework assignment is today's pricing. Q and option choices will undoubtedly change dramatically tomorrow AM with HDR announcement and depending upon market FUD going on. But this is for today's study purposes and not on what might be best to do at noon tomorrow. Alias