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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (41636)	2/28/2000 12:20:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Michael, the first eerie occurrence for me were the oil stocks failing to respond to 10 year highs in crude (a market that's in backwardation, meaning supplies are tight and upward pressure on prices remains assured for the foreseeable future) and instead breaking down...it was a clear sign of liquidity problems in the market. why would people dump oil stocks as if crude was already on it's way back down? it's not normal... note also that transportation and bank stocks are strong leading indicators for the economy. they predict a slowdown/recession that's not yet reflected in the economic data. i don't buy the theory that tech is completely immune, although i do acknowledge that the building out of new technologies is in full swing right now. but the market is not about right NOW. the tech stock valuations already discount decades of growth...how much better can it get? i watch the European and Asian markets every day/night. there's one common theme everywhere: complacency in the face of a deteriorating liquidity environment. regards, hb