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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (41639)	2/28/2000 12:47:00 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re. your naz comp chart The "beat goes on", but sooner or later momo's will "face the music". I suspect it'll be sooner ( >6mos ) rather than later. Of course for some on this thread 6mos is an eternity <gg>. lurking... lurqer

To: HairBall who wrote (41639)	2/28/2000 12:54:00 AM
From: Kailash	Respond to of 99985

LG - "thinking like a criminal" -- I think this is a very good question. If you could control the market and yank as much cash from naive investors as you could, what would you do? 1. Run up the Dow as you exit (your point about distributions from October is well taken) 2. Slide the Dow down while you hold or up the Nasdaq -- talk about "new economy" and get people onboard; handwave in the direction of 5000 3. Tank the Nasdaq 15-20% -- to 4100 and then back to 3750 -- in one or several sudden moves, before people know what hit them. 4. From that bottom stage a huge rally. Let's say the third stage could take three weeks from this point, to options expiration. No crash, just maximal volatility. BTW I wanted to say you're doing a great job hosting what must be the best thread on SI -- to me it's the combination of everyone's efforts that really make the difference. Skip past the nay-sayers and let them contribute as they can. K

To: HairBall who wrote (41639)	2/28/2000 12:54:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, i agree...a crash would only occur if 'they' lose control for a moment. that said, some sub-indices ARE crashing. i still believe that panics happen from time to time, often for no good reason...all it took in '87 was 3% of the invested capital trying to exit on the same day. however, i would not go as far as predicting such an event, as they are rare, and by their very nature unpredictable. BUT as i've mentioned before, we are in a high risk time segment. since i have posted the first warning about this the non-tech indices have continued to move lower fast and with little respite. i arrive at the period of high risk by counting the days from the top of S&P and Dow. between day 40-65 from the top is the high risk segment whenever the market has declined strongly from the high with sharply weakening internals. the Nasdaq is ALWAYS the last to decline, although i must admit the extent of the divergence is rather baffling by now... regards, hb