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Technology Stocks : Interdigital Communication(IDCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gus who wrote (4065)	2/28/2000 11:40:00 AM
From: w molloy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5195

IDC RECURRING REVENUE POTENTIAL FROM HANDSETS ONLY some perspective 1) GSM + WCDMA 2) D-AMPS (1G Analog) + UWC-136 (2G TDMA) 3) CDMAOne + CDMA2000 4) D-AMPS + UWC-136 + GSM + WCDMA 5) GSM + CDMAOne + CDMA2000 Your poster was referencing multi mode handsets. Revenue should be gauged against technology. a) GSM (The pan european digital standard, also in use in China. GSM uses TDMA) IDC has not had significant (i.e. QCOM like) royalties from GSM, in part due to (apparently) not participating in the IPR pooling process that occured 10 years ago. Future royalties, from TDMA IPR is contingent on ERICY litigation. b) WCDMA (a next generation digital standard) IDC has received $70million from NOK, for R&D. It's not clear whether a recurring payments will accrue c) D-AMPS (The first generation cellular standard, predominate in the US) 0 d) UWC-136 (A major US digital standard) TDMA IPR is contingent on ERICY litigation. e) IS-95 cdmaOne (The other major US digital standard, also used in the far east) IDC received $5million in 1994 from QCOM in a cross license arrangement. No further revenue has been received or expected. f) cdma2000 (A next generation digital standard, equivalent to WCDMA. Will probably become the dominant 3G US standard) It is alledged that the QCOM 1994 payment also covered cdma2000 systems. This has been disputed on these threads. This could be a question to ask IDC management at the next CC Three things stand out. 1) If IDC had such strong TDMA patents, where are the earnings? IDC earned some $170..200million over the last 10 years from licensing. To put this in perspective, QCOM earned $174million last quarter from licensing - in a much smaller market (compared to GSM/IS-136 : see Gug's 'Big Picture' Post just priorto this one ) 2)IDC's potential earnings from WCDMA Note that 3G systems deployment is several years away. Short-medium term (i.e. For the next three years) earnings will come from R&D work, presumably from NOK. *For the long term, IDC shareholders are gambling on the acceptance of IDC patents for WCDMA.* 3) IDC's potential earnings from TDMA IDC have failed to collect on GSM IDC have a criticaly important action against ERICY due to be heard in a few weeks. IDC lost a very similar action against MOT *For the short term, IDC shareholders are gambling on the outcome of the ERICY litigation* Some things I would like to see discussed on this thread... - The upcoming ERICY litigation; - If IDC win, how will they collect against ERICY? - Will they collect against NOK? - How will that affect their current relationship with NOK. - How will they collect from the other GSM/TDMA players. - Will their ability to collect be compromised by their failure to participate in the GSM IPR pooling effort?