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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rr_burns who wrote (6504)	2/28/2000 12:48:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

rr- You're asking the $64,000 question. Something I've spent years of work on. But it's been fruitful years I can happily(or luckily) say. In a nutshell, no matter what hype you read (and I've been reading it for 15 years), every single technology rollout takes many years longer than anticipated. In the telecom sector it's easy to figure out why. It's called money. As I've said numerous times upstream, there is a worldwide infrastructure that has taken over 100 years to build. It consists of 900,000,000 local copper loops. And to it the coaxial network which has been around for about 50 years. God only knows how many homes are connected because worldwide stats are VERY difficult to come across. But the figure is substantial. Just the copper network alone costs over a trillion dollars to build. And I think that is not even in terms of, "real" dollars. I believe it's absolute dollars from way back when. So the figure is enormous. Believe it or not, their is still a need for TDM. Listen to a TLAB CC and you'll hear it. Therefore in answer to your question, is 1-3 mb/s enough? Well the answer is absolutely not. But if 70 million Americans are willing to pay $40/month for cablecos/telcos to deliver this stepping stone service, then it will be built because someone has to pay for the infrastructure upgrades. Right now, that's all $40/month will get us, that first step. Soon that will change as depreciation of assets take effect. Then it will be on to the next step. Another example, Cisco Systems. And the absolute mania about fiber optics. Most automatically think of them as King of technology. Well consider that only $200 million of their $4,350 million Q2 revenues was fiber related. So that means 95% of their revenues of this bleeding edge company hooked up to good old copper. Legacy networks are for real and they have to be taken into account. -MikeM(From Florida)