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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dbblg who wrote (95167)	2/28/2000 9:02:00 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 164684

<<Anyway, you'll probably do fine shorting AMZN here. >> he sure did fine today.

To: dbblg who wrote (95167)	2/28/2000 9:27:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Are you extrapolating the burn rate for the past year indefinitely into the future? If so, your estimates for AMZN's future sales are considerably more aggressive than most, as management has indicated they are essentially done with the U.S. warehouse buildout. Ganesh, I agree with most of your post. I do want to say the Euorpean buildout has just begun. Bertellman's (sp) is doing very well in Europe and is now moving into Japan. See: bol.com WMT analogy less because of any similarities between the two companies than because WMT is one of the relatively small number of retailers to generate serious long-term wealth for its shareholders. I agree. An exception would be Sears but way back in the 1950-70. This country and Europe is over retailed now. High growth, high profits are unlikely with most retailers. Also, the competitive seen is always changing. Even if you are correct, predicting when "investors wise up and stop giving/lending" is rarely as simple as you suggest. I certainly would not have predicted that AMZN would be able to raise as much money on as generous terms as it has, I have been totally amazed at this. Surely there's a better return to be had with some cash-strapped regional chain which caters to Providian cardholders? JCP, RAD for a start<G>

To: dbblg who wrote (95167)	2/29/2000 3:20:00 AM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi. Amazon is a potentially great short not only because of it's future (or lack thereof), but also because of its valuation. Walmart sells at around 1.5 times sales. Amazon is priced at something like 20 times sales. Furthermore, Amazon is highly unlikely to take any prudent financial steps in the near future, since that would be 'traditional' and immediately cause a drop in their share price. They are trying to spend money like a 25 billion dollar company when they don't know how to be profitable even as a bookstore. Thus, they are going to be profligate with their money for some time to come, further guaranteeing financial doom. Of course, all of the above arguments were true when Amazon was at a 5 billion valuation, and then it quintupled in price. But now it feels like the run-up is finished, especially with Greenspan pulling liquiditiy out and inflation coming around. That's why I like Amazon so much as a short.