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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (257)	2/29/2000 1:10:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

Robert, I agree with you and others here that we've seen the highs for the year in the SPX, Dow, OEX & NYSE. BUT... NO CRASH... not for several months... in fact, we're at the low end of a multimonth trading range that is at the late stages of being defined. More importantly, there has never been a greater time than over the next few months to sink your teeth into the small cap market as it continues to regain lost ground to the big cap market over the last few years. I believe this heated s.c. rally will continue for 3 more months before the first major pullback sets in. Everyone who wants to make big money consistently over the next few months should immediately subscribe to "Market Gems" by Jenna and land the big opportunities she serves up daily. Thus, I expect the rally in small caps and selected mid & fewer still large caps will prop the major indices up over the next few months, with downside to 1300 in the SPX (but not right away) and upside back up to the 1445. Sector rotation will continue to be in vogue, with nearly all sectors experiencing their moment in the sun over the next 3 months... THEN the bottom drops out, with the following 12 months characterized by sharp & swift declines followed by leisurely bounces that lull the average investor into believing the correction/bear mkt. is over. But the sins of the big cap bulls over the last 16 months were so great that it will take months and months of bear market activity to drain the contamination from the market. In Elliott terms, we've seen a large scale Wave 1 rally off the Oct.'98 lows, which ended on 4/13/99. Since then, we've been in a very complex Wave 2 expanded flat corrective, with A of 2 completing on 10/18/99, B of 2 on 2/9/00, and now we're in C of 2. From the 2/9 beginning, this C wave has surely gotten off to a strong start... But it looks like it has done too much damage too quickly to general market sentiment to make much more progress for now. Thus, I expect roughly 3 months of sideways activity with an upside bias (from down here). My guess is that swing trading will produce very profitable results, so the Don Sews of the world will be valuable resources. I expect this C wave to bottom out in the 2nd quarter of 2001 somewhere around 1000 SPX. Regards, David

To: robert b furman who wrote (257)	2/29/2000 6:49:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Good Morning Bob, Great post!!! GZ

To: robert b furman who wrote (257)	2/29/2000 11:27:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Bob, Were you required to sell your 500 at 28..? I hope Not...! >>I no more than enter the order and the bid goes to a bid of 28 1/4 to an ask of 28 7/8. All this on 900 shares - the dow is up and the naz is down 60.<< Yes, I played the Canadian pennies for a few years and the same system exists up there, but much nastier. They do not have to declare short positions. I got out just after the BRE-X deal....markets were destroyed and have not recovered. The NASDAQ chart is exactly like many of those penny charts, but stronger at the top. Will it end here this month or next month...or a few years out...? A very wise trader and excellent once told me this: " Trying to pick tops & bottoms are for suckers- Public is historically always wrong (that's how Vegas builds casino's ) Stay away from even numbers when buying and selling and never get in or out of a position at one price." He Also Said: "Bulls win - Bears win - Pigs get slaughtered - Never be greedy always be willing to leave a little on the table for the next guy - If things aren't going your way tomorrow's another day. " Avoiding the Vegas mentality is a hard lesson to learn. A 15% profit is better then a 15% loss and still better then a 25% PAPER PROFIT. Lets us hope we are all correct and can see a serious decline before most do...! We stand the best chance possible here in this SI community... Better then any other public gathering. Did you catch this read..? jerryfavors.com Thanks for an excellent post. Chip