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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nichols who wrote (6939)	2/29/2000 4:34:00 PM
From: Guy Gordon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

RE "Gotta disagree..." Well, that's why it's a market. :-) Funny you mention CSCO. That's one I've been in for years. The last time it broke one of my trendlines was Fall of 1998, in the Asian Financial Crisis. That one took me by surprise. When the Thai Bhat collapsed I convinced myself that it wouldn't matter. Who the hell cares about the Bhat? Then the market collapsed around me. I figured it was far, far overdone, and just held on. None the less, you need to make two good decisions about a stock -- when to buy, and when to sell. I try to decide which stock to buy based on fundamentals, and when to buy & sell based on trendlines. That means if a stock with good fundamentals starts down, I sell it, and then look for a new entry point (hopefully lower). It sounds nice to say "sell when the fundamentals change", but it's damned difficult to put into practice. They usually don't change all that rapidly. For example, PE ratio is a fundamental. As JDSU goes up, so does the PE. At what point has this changed enough for you to sell? The best fundamental to watch is earnings & sales estimates. If those stop growing, get out. But then, everyone does look at those, so it's reflected in the stock price. If those fall, the stock will drop off its trend, causing me to sell.