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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (95903)	2/29/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1575396

Josef: Re: "So let me get you started. What do you think about this 1.1 mill Athlons in current quarter?" Comment: Consider the history of the source and one must conclude that 1.1 million is low, maybe even considerably so. Perhaps Mr. Sanders will provide additional information tomorrow...I just don't think AMD would discontinue the Athlon 500MHz and 550MHz processors unless an equal demand for Athlons 600MHz and above was guaranteed...Having said that, notwithstanding that Q1 sales are traditionally weak, and with GTW and HP now firmly entrenched Athlon supporters, and armed with Mr. Sanders Feb. 11 statement that Q1 sales are robust and may surpass Q4 sales...I can only conclude that 1.1 million is a fairly significant underestimate of Q1 Athlon shipments...Just doesn't make sense to me that Athlon quarterly trend at this stage of the marketing curve, particularly given the barrage of Athlon accolades and awards from all quarters of the world, would go from 200,000 in Q3 to 1 million in Q4 and 1.1 million in Q1...Athlon sales are just warming up...The idea stated by ML that no one wants 700MHz and above is a red herring...Given the Athlons uncontested competition in price/performance at 700 MHz and above coupled with the lack of meaningful competition at the top-end, I would suspect AMD can ship as many Athlons as they can produce in this range, hence the discontinuance of the 500's and 550's...The ML definition of "no-one" may mean 5 million, whereas 1 million at 700 MHz or greater and 1 million in the 500MHz to 650 MHz at this point of the Athlon rollout is very significant to AMD...Hey, 1.1 million Athys will guarantee improved earnings from Q4 but, imho, is the worst case scenario...The more likely scenario, when I factor in what look like important determinants to me such as GTW and HP and motherboard evolution...is a minimum of 1.5 million and I can't consider 2 million Athys as out of the question! Yep...another record quarter for AMD with revenues easily breaking the $1 billion barrier and minimum 1.5 million Athys and an eps that may approaching the $1.00 per quarter threshhold!

To: Joe NYC who wrote (95903)	2/29/2000 7:00:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575396

Re: "What do you think about this 1.1 mill Athlons in current quarter?" I know you didn't ask me but I'll jump in anyway. I think 1.1 million is on the low side and it should be much closer to 2 million. Demand is still strong across the board and Intel has not brought all their capacity to the marketplace yet. EP

To: Joe NYC who wrote (95903)	2/29/2000 7:30:00 PM
From: ptanner	Respond to of 1575396

Jozef <What do you think about this 1.1 mill Athlons in current quarter?> I believe this number is low. The Athlon is ramping up with vendor support (GTW, HWP) and greater availability of motherboards. It is interesting to consider all of ML comments: 1.0M -> 1.1M Athlons @ $250 ASP (taken from siliconinvestor.com Say cost of $80/unit then net income gain of $17M / 147.8M shares for EPS of +$0.115 Contrast with their estimate for Y2000 EPS increase from $1.94 to $2.10? ML doesn't see very much momentum to this shift from 4Q99 to 1Q00 carrying into future quarters? AMD needs to clearly demonstrate some staying power with respect to earnings. This quarter's AMD earnings contest should be even more interesting than the last one. PT