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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (41801)	2/29/2000 9:35:00 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thanks OJ... Really enjoy following your work, and slowly learning about the P&F method. Best of Luck, JM

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (41801)	2/29/2000 9:38:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

oj: "the bears have to move aside here..we just had a 2 billion trade day on the NAZ..now thats huffin' and puffin' in my book..." Wasn't the vol 2 bil on the last high before it reversed?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (41801)	2/29/2000 10:31:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The Nasdaq is on track to beat its performance of 1999. I did the math. Nasdaq ended last year with ~86% gain, to end at ~4050. I can't see on the chart the exact numbers, but that is very close. So, let's estimate a modest increase of 10% over last year's gain, which comes to 94.6% increase over the 4050 level, or a rise of 3,831 pts. That's right: The Nasdaq under this senario ends 2000 at 7,881. And it's on track to do it: Take the rise of 3,831, and divide by 6 (2 months have passed, or 1/6), and you get 638. So add those points to where the Nasdaq ended 1999, and you get (4050+638)=4,688. Where is the Nasdaq right now, on the last day of Feb: 4,696. Now obviously stocks usually don't go up at the same rate, month after sequential month. However, so far this year, 1/6 of the year 2000 is gone, and the Nasdaq is on track to beat it's performance of 1999. Let me add that I don't think the Nasdaq will end 2000 at 7,881. But so far, that's where it's aiming.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (41801)	2/29/2000 10:53:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ, I'm just a lowly intraday index trader these days (when trading at all)... wish I knew I was going to be around to trade today and I would have joined you on WAVX. I am not saying we aren't going up here, but since you brought up volume... the bears have to move aside here..we just had a 2 billion trade day on the NAZ..now thats huffin' and puffin' in my book... intelligentspeculator.com I added total volume to my COMPX chart. Each volume peak coincides exactly with the day before a big reversal (or in the case of one, was a big reversal day). (LG I am with you on the distribution thing, no doubt here. 2B+ shares and fairly narrow range can be nothing but...) So don't "assume" anything tomorrow... even though on balance there's plenty of signs of bottoming in individual names, the internals don't yet support it. I'm not taking either direction for granted - I went long some defensive names with low volatility but I suspect I may have to close them out tomorrow if things deteriorate. And perhaps my PDG buy stop will be hit if things do fall apart... ;) Cheers! Mike