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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (3993)	3/1/2000 5:36:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

I'm not sure which is worse: fear of failure by selling too soon or fear of success and riding the downhill slope. The latter is quite unpleasant. The former is something I did not experience with LRCX. Did I sell at prices lower than this? Oh yeah ... and lots of it. Was that too early? I guess that is what The Market is telling me. Still, I always try to stay focused on valuation. In this industry, valuation is what I am willing to pay for a cyclical business whose cycles are so abrupt and sudden as to make any holder fear the ultimate investment penalty. At these prices, I can come up with an earnings scenario that has LRCX earning $7.50/share. I can tweak a few numbers here and there and come up with $15/share. I can then justify my holdings by saying that I am 'only' paying 20x's or 10x's peak numbers. I just have no confidence that those peak numbers are even close to attainable in this or the next two cycles. It is almost impossible to see the mythical Top of the Cycle. For all I know, this recovery lasts for another 5 years. The risk for me is not missing the next big move in the stock, it is losing my hard-earned profits resulting from buying when all others hated. It is always amusing in these Tech Rallies how much attention is paid to the upside potential, and how little attention is paid to the downside risk. Fortunately, the exact opposite holds true during the down-cycle. When the darkest days return, I'll be back around. --Duker