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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: locke_1 who wrote (19073)	2/29/2000 11:24:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

locke, I've got two primary thoughts in response to your concerns. The first thought is that there is quite a bit more risk in trying to know ahead of time that the product will cross the chasm as compared to the risk of trying to know ahead of time that it will enter a tornado. If we are wrong in the latter case, we enjoy solid growth in the bowling alley even if the tornado doesn't form. If we are wrong in the former case, the adoption of the product as well as the stock price will fall into the chasm's abyss. My second thought is that the immediate concern for not leaving money on the table is taking place in the middle of a highly unusual period in the history of the stock market. Last year the Naz went up 85%. If it continues at the same pace for the rest of the year that it's been on for the first two months, the Naz will increase 136%. At that rate, the index will grow from about 4069 to a whopping 9600. Almost to 10,000! These are unique times. Let's be flexible, but let's not alter a system we hope will work for decades to accomodate what might prove to be the headiest period of investing we're fortunate enough to experience. --Mike Buckley

To: locke_1 who wrote (19073)	2/29/2000 11:39:00 PM
From: spiral3	Respond to of 54805

locke, this is Elon's perspective on the phases of adoption for their technology. The only date reference in this document is to 1996. I have changed the order in which these statements occur in Elons document. Echelon identified three phases leading to widespread use of LONWORKS technology: Phase I for (i) defining and debugging the protocol, (ii) gaining a critical mass of OEMs, consultants and integrators, and (iii) facilitating interoperability, Phase II for getting mainstream adoption and ensuring interoperability, and Phase III for unconstrained growth in new applications across the full range of markets. Making LONWORKS technology portable is a key step for Phase III. The Neuron Chip, with its processing power and architecture, has historically defined the limits of a LONWORKS application's space. With the protocol now portable, these limits are eliminated. The reference for the above is at one of my previous posts Message 12989920

To: locke_1 who wrote (19073)	3/1/2000 12:03:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Let me respond to some of your concerns. 1) Buying a Gorilla is not about getting the highest return. It is about getting a very high return in almost complete safety. When to buy is an art, not a science. 2) Many of us here buy other stocks than Gorillas. We buy a lot of Kings. We also are taking some wild rides, and mention them here. Those of us who know each other understand what we are doing, (I think!). 3)"Newbies" are probably confused by a lot of what some of us do. That is why I try to post my nuttier investments and ideas on the other crochity Gorilla thread.

To: locke_1 who wrote (19073)	3/1/2000 2:20:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

locke--Thanks for a thoughtful post. It made me get out the manual, and turn to the section on CAP. Page 96 of RFM shows a truncated time line of a gorilla's market cap. It is truncated because it does not show the early years. The question is whether present emergent gorillas and gorilla candidates have already been priced up too far. Have much of the superior long-term returns already been taken out of the stock? I am thinking in particular of JDSU right now. (Alternatively, is JDSU in Stage A of the chart on Page 120, with Stages B and C to follow?) Best, JS

To: locke_1 who wrote (19073)	3/1/2000 6:48:00 AM
From: buck	Respond to of 54805

RE Chasms <<Chaz and the thread in general>> Excellent and thought provoking post, locke_1... This might be old news to the regulars, but I snagged a copy of "Crossing the Chasm" in an airport the other day, and was delighted to find that it had been revised in 1999. I've hardly had a chance to crack it, but the preface of the book speaks to the acceleration of this chasm-crossing. It's probably worth standing in a bookstore and reading this preface, if you don't want to buy the whole book ($16 for the paperback...of course, it was an airport...grrrrr.) I'm not sure what investment advice I'll find in it, since it's directed at marketeers. Perhaps someone who has read the revised CtC would give us the benefit of their insights. I'll certainly post what I learn, if anyone is interested. buck