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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (41844)	3/1/2000 2:12:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

>>Demand for chips has been accelerating<< If demand is up so much, why was IBM, DELL, CPQ, GTW all down today and SUNW flat? I am no expert but I would be willing to bet there are more chips ina computer or server than in a cell phone. I don't know what to make of this market and I am laying low since I am now writing on multiple sites and it is hard to spread my thoughts all over. I did note that someone is claiming this is easy despite them calling for a drop two days ago. Guess I forgot to read it in the mirror. <ggg> I am not so sure anyone can call this more than a day at a time. This market is not following anyone's plan that I can see. As for P&F, I hate to be the one always pointing things out but I thought they just got a sell signal again before this ramp up. No one I have seen here has been right excpet for individual stock plays which is a good thing but the broader market would be nicer. I agree with Bobby that we are in the manic blowoff phase but I disagree we can cleanly time it and stick with my original call that we are repeating April 98 which lasted longer than any of us thought back then despite lousy internals. A quick run through the DOW stocks and most were down, not up. dead cat bounces and slides into the close is NOT bullish. Until the open interest in NDX puts drop in high volume, they will prop this beast up with bogus upgrades, rapid sector rotations etc and squeeze, squeeze squeeze. Short term window is Monday for a drop but the big one could still be months off. I will say that one bad piece of news could set this off like a match in a gas tank. I see many writing about the wedge on the NASDAQ and NDX. Take a look at UTX a month ago or so which was a trade earlier that whipsawed a few people around. Beautiful wedge that broke up hard, double topped then tanked like a beauty. I would love to see a repeat in the techs like that one. Good Luck, Lee

To: The Ox who wrote (41844)	3/1/2000 2:21:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 99985

Michael, thanks for the chart. Bookings are definitely at a historic high, but not high enough to justify anything close to the semi stock prices, IMO. It's interesting on that chart that the book-to-bill ratio has peaked in this 1.3 area three times (Feb 95, Feb 96, and Mar 99). Maybe this time it goes higher. Valuations are just so out of wack though across the entire "tech" sector. It's all been said a thousand times though, so no use in going on about the obvious.