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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (19108)	3/1/2000 3:12:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> On jdsu--My own conclusion is that it is somewhere between gorilla and king. An Internet Infrastructure Godzilla? I don't expect that we'll ever reach a consensus on jdsu based on theoretical considerations. We'll just have to watch it play out over the next few years and then decide what it is. >> There is a lot more discounting of future earnings going on than when the manual was written. Either that or the forces of liquidity coupled with exuberance/greed have overcome any reasonable standards of valuation, but perhaps only for the moment. Changing our approach based on a relatively short term phenomena could be a fatal error. uf

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (19108)	3/1/2000 3:44:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: IBM and the mainframe technology adoption life cycle. John wrote: When did IBM's gorilla mainframe paradigm get taken over by the desktop paradigm? You will find that information in graphical form here, John: nextgenerationnetworks.com In regards to Cisco, it is important to note the two technology adoption life cycles at the top of the graph. Cisco is the gorilla in the enterprise networking technology adoption life cycle which began in 1990 and is also a force in the newly developing 'next generation networks' (IP/Broadband) technology adoption life cycle. If past gorillas have learned anything, I believe that Chambers and team are fighting to prevent a scenario such as IBM encountered. I certainly have more faith in the management of Cisco than I do, retrospectively, through reading of management's handling of IBM's business ventures as new technology adoption life cycles approached. BB

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (19108)	3/1/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

And while the market "consistently" undervalues Gorillas, I'm getting to the conclusion that it is doing so less consistently now than it was last year. I'd like to add that just because it has consistently undervalued Gorillas in the past doesn't mean it will always do so in the future. My guess is that it will tend to undervalue them during bear markets and slow-growth markets and that if it does overvalue them it will most likely occur in hugely robust markets such as the one we're currently experiencing. --Mike Buckley