Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: capt rocky 1 who wrote (50607)	3/1/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

rocks, mu is WAY behind on rmbs. WAY behind.

To: capt rocky 1 who wrote (50607)	3/1/2000 7:03:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Rambus may very well be the future for high end memories but for the next few years it will continue to face stiff competition and slow acceptance relative to SDRAM & Double Data rate DRAM, IMO. MU stock has gone through this cycle time and again in the past: demand improves relative to supply and the price briefly stabilizes and goes up. The commodity semi companies have a temporary "license to print money" via fat margins out of their fabs. Fat profits cause untapped and new capacity to ramp up more quickly than the best experts suspected. The huge ramp in demand proves to be partly false because there has been some double or triple ordering and buffer inventorying of parts. The industry experiences a seasonal slowdown or some other reason for a slowdown. Before the public understands it, supply exceeds demand and prices fall to near break-even levels. Analysts increase their price targets and earnings projections based on best world (highly unrealistic) assumptions as they tell their closest clients to take profits as the stocks subsequently rise. Insiders sell stock at an abnormally high level. Companies announce secondary offerings, stock splits, convertible debt offerings, etc. The companies report "another super growth quarter . . . but the outlook is a little murky." The institutions and savvy investors quietly sell while the stock price reacts favorably to the great earnings. Before the next quarter, the company warns of decreased margins and dollar sales and the stock falls by 40%-50% from it's highs. Will this happen soon? I think there is a good chance MU and other commodity semis will see a 25%-40% correction by October. MU may continue to move up to the 110-120 range before it peaks. If it hits 120, the move down will be steeper and wider IMO. The momentum is still to the upside and predicting that a downtrend in the cycle will occur this summer is certainly not a sure thing. But it just "feels right".