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To: Paul Verderber who wrote (50624)	3/1/2000 3:25:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 53903

--Paul LOL. I liked your analogy of walking a straight line while watching your feet. That isn't exactly what I was talking about, but, obviously, from a statistical point of view, small samples have big problems with confidence intervals. Anything under 30 samples is probably suspect. A record of daily up/down probability going back years does let you back-test any ideas you get. Still, the simple probability readings I find helpful are based on expected value and the central limit theorem. Current pricing seems to me more indicative of the current situation. As I said, it's by no means an absolute, more like a hint, occasionally helpful, for example, during MU's back and forth 60-80 trips over the last 6 months. BTW, the VIX (the OEX option volatility index) uses the same period (1-2 months, depending where we are in the options cycle) to assess implied market volatility. Best --Steve