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To: Tecinvestor who wrote (19213)	3/2/2000 6:42:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

CSCO is not a component maker. They buy components, add software and create "systems". Don't expect them to compete with JDSU/SDLI but become a big customer instead, imo.

To: Tecinvestor who wrote (19213)	3/2/2000 8:35:00 AM
From: BDR	Respond to of 54805

<<is it realistic to expect that a company like CSCO might take out either SDLI or JDSU?>> Before JDSU bought ETEK I had heard the opinion expressed that they wouldn't do it because of anti-trust implications. Apparently they are going to try anyway. JDSU taking out SDLI as well may get the regulators riled up, but I don't know much about that process. But you were asking about Cisco. I think it depends on whether they want to get deeper into that phase of data transmission. In one sense the things that SDLI and JDSU make are just another type of network connector that happens to connect the electrical part of a network to the optical part. SDLI's market cap is about $16 billion and JDSU is at $100 billion making them one of the bigger (the biggest?) Cisco acquisitions if either were to happen.

To: Tecinvestor who wrote (19213)	3/2/2000 6:51:00 PM
From: BDR	Respond to of 54805

Cisco- Acquisitions and Competency in Optics Pirelli was supposed to provide Cisco with capability in this area: informationweek.com But some in the market still see Cisco as lacking strength in this area: informationweek.com From page 4 "The public network is complex," says Morency. "Cisco hasn't been in this market, and you don't overcome disadvantages overnight." Cisco has little experience building extremely reliable voice infrastructures. It lacks Lucent's and Nortel's familiarity with circuit-switched PBXs and optical transport technologies. Fiber-optic technology, which supports unlimited bandwidth for voice, video, and data traffic on one network, is expected to be a $41 billion market in five years. Also, many large service providers prefer asynchronous transfer mode's proven quality of service and 99.999% reliability over IP's best efforts. Cisco, which has always put most of its money on IP, participated in developing an ATM-like protocol called Multi-Protocol Label Switching to help IP achieve better quality of service for voice calls and differentiated services. But some carriers are waiting until MPLS proves itself, and until then are sticking with ATM. Although Cisco offers ATM switches, some providers say its central management software doesn't cut it. SBC Communications Inc., which owns carrier networks such as Southwestern Bell, says that's one reason it didn't select Cisco for its next-generation network. The network, a $6 billion, three-year initiative, will make broadband services available to 80% of SBC users by pushing fiber and digital subscriber line equipment deeper into the neighborhoods it serves. SBC will deploy advanced packet-switching technology--voice trunking over ATM--to create an integrated voice, data, and video backbone network. SBC chose several Cisco competitors for the project, including Lucent and Nortel. "Nortel and Lucent offer a number of products that have an integrated management system, but right now Cisco doesn't," says Sam Saigarto, SBC's executive director of broadband switching and transmission. CIMI analyst Nolle says Cisco's decision early on to focus on IP puts it at risk. "The infrastructure over the next five years is not going to be all IP--it will be ATM." But Cisco VP Lang says the vendor never planned to replace ATM with IP, and that its strategy to link IP and ATM through MPLS is paying off. The Dell'Oro Group reports that in the third quarter of 1999, Cisco showed healthy growth in the ATM market. And Cisco can point to partnerships to build next-generation IP infrastructures with providers such as Qwest Communications International Inc. The long-distance phone company, and CPN-certified provider, last summer extended an agreement to deliver Internet-based data, voice, and image services, such as VPNs and Web call-center systems, primarily over Cisco-built networks to its 4.5 million users. Cisco is gobbling up companies with technologies that are key to helping carriers deliver converged networks. More than half of its acquisitions in the last two years--to the tune of about $10 billion--were made to drive its presence in the service-provider market. Chambers says he anticipates acquiring another 25 to 30 companies with competencies in this area this year.