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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (49921)	3/2/2000 12:00:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116764

Jobs Surprise Could Rattle Bonds Mar. 2-MAR-- [B] Bridge Futures Outlook: Jobs surprise could rattle bonds By Genevieve Sedlack, Bridge News Chicago--Mar 2--Friday's US non-farm payrolls report is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's apparent bias toward raising short-term interest rates later this month, but bond futures are at risk for a volatile session if the data serve up a surprise. * * * Economists have been concerned for months that low unemployment, a lack of workers to fill jobs and rising wages could prompt inflation growth, but they expect February figures to be less alarming than the January data. However, the numbers may hold some surprises. Evelina Tainer, chief economist at Econoday, said favorable weather in February could prompt an increase in payrolls figures well above current estimates. Non-farm jobs are expected to rise an average of 215,000, down from the gain of 387,000 in January. The February jobless rate is expected to remain at a record low rate of 4.0 percent, while average hourly earnings are seen up 0.3 percent, versus the January gain of 0.4 percent (Stories .4893, .4789). Credit futures traders wonder what the Federal Open Market Committee has planned for interest rates this year, and jobs data remain some of the most influential numbers on market participants' expectations for Fed action. Although economic data this month--as well as Humphrey-Hawkins congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan--tempered fears that the Fed is behind the curve, federal funds futures suggest that the likelihood of a 25-basis-point move at the March 21 policy meeting remains near the 100-percent level. To that end, Tainer said the unemployment rate released Friday was more interesting than the payrolls number. "The majority of economists are forecasting a 4.0-percent rate," she said. "But if we get a 3 handle on that, I think it will be really negative for the market. Everyone knows conditions are tight, but psychologically having a 3 instead of a 4 as a front number could cause people more worry about what the Fed is going to do." End Bridge News, Tel: (312) 454-3471 Send comments to Internet address: futures@bridge.com [slug: Futures-Outlook] The Bridge ID for this story is 01275 (c) Copyright 2000 FWN futuresource.com