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To: gdichaz who wrote (3739)	3/3/2000 12:09:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Respond to of 34857

Let's go back to the summer of 1998 - the time when enthusiasm about 3G started building. Remember how the conventional wisdom according to San Diego Tribune went: CDMA2000 in Korea, USA and possibly Japan, W-CDMA in European GSM markets (if it even existed). China would implement IS-95 in 1999 and then migrate to CDMA2000, ensuring the Pacific CDMA2000 triumph. Remember? Now here we are - both Japan Telecom and NTT-DoCoMo have selected W-CDMA. Koreans are breaking for W-CDMA. China Telecom is going for W-CDMA and Unicom's IS-95 roll-out plan is stalled for the fifth or sixth time, I lost count after last autumn. So suddenly W-CDMA is looking like a true, global 3G standard. But here's the twist: the actual implementation schedule seems vague. Not anywhere nearly as vague as CDMA2000, but still not where it was supposed to be at this point. By now, markets like England and Sweden were supposed to have already granted the licenses. NTT-DoCoMo was supposed to have already made the big infrastructure orders. Instead, 2,5G technologies are suddenly emerging as the major investment targets for mobile operators. So the winning strategy for a mobile manufacturer in 1998 would have been to concentrate on W-CDMA for the long-term and GPRS/EDGE for the mid-term outlook. Remarkably few companies were farsighted enough to execute this strategy. Tero