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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (42151)	3/3/2000 5:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Anindo, up to a point, yes. let me put it this way, it is natural for these readings to be above normal in a trending market. but the extremes seen over the past few months are unprecedented...and that is not healthy. a healthy bull market ALWAYS has a certain amount of skepticism underpinning it. where else is fresh money to come from if not from the skeptics that stay out of the market? just look at the all-time low in the Rydex money market + bear funds vs. bull and sector funds ratio. it is a statistically valid microcosm of the whole investment scene, and suggests that the majority of market participants have already committed themselves to the long side. that leaves no additional liquidity to drive further advances or to cushion a fall once it starts. you see, even the skeptics like me are fully invested. while i am prepared for a decline, i too am dancing on the Titanic. and so are other skeptics...that is what the ratios are telling us. most noteworthy the recent decline in the non-tech indices that ended last week, did not put in a fear bottom. i have never before seen a decline of that magnitude greeted with so much equanimity. therefore it is highly unlikely that it marked THE bottom. regards, hb