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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (7075)	3/3/2000 9:00:00 PM
From: Larry Zenith	Respond to of 24042

JDSU has now surpassed the market cap of QCOM and Yahoo. Dell looks like the next target. ETEK has 20B market cap over there, when acquisition is closed, JDSU will automatically surpass DELL. So much for the S and P 500 It is going to happen sooner rather than later. Patience. Larry

To: t2 who wrote (7075)	3/4/2000 12:23:00 AM
From: RR	Respond to of 24042

t2: Let's think positive this weekend. How about another 10% this next week to the split, then a triple from there by Sept options expiration. Now that sounds reasonable. Rick

To: t2 who wrote (7075)	3/4/2000 12:33:00 AM
From: John Waddell, Ph.D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Market Cap and S&P entry t2, I checked out the market caps. As Larry Zenith noted, ETEK will add 20B. I'm looking for JDSU to go to $600 by the end of the year ($150 with the coming split and one near the end of the year). With ETEK, that would give it a market cap of about 230B. I was in AOL in the early part of last year. A lot of people said it would go to 200 at that time, but others started to point out that it's market cap was getting into MSFT territory. I think this created a ceiling. While JDSU is nowhere near that, it is also not as ubiquitous as MSFT or AOL, and at some point there will be an upper limit to the market cap. I agree with fishweed and John Biddle that the S&P is an artificial boost. If we move up too fast, we'll see the same thing that happened to AOL last April and QCOM on Jan 3rd. fishweed, like you I'm a "concentrator". However, I'm not a long-term investor in any one stock. When JDSU reaches its near-term ceiling, I hope I get out. I was in QCOM last Fall, but have been out this year. (I learned my lesson from AOL. I kept trying to work it on the long side between April and August last year and lost a bundle.) Inclusion in S&P does not always result in a pop in price. Qualcomm used the opportunity to sell a lot of stock quickly, without causing a drop in the price. JDSU might do the same, and use the cash to continue its rapid capacity expansion. John, if JDSU does this, fine. I think it will make the stock more valuable in the long-term. As was already pointed out, the pop a stock might get from S&P inclusion is often not permanent, since it was caused by a one time market condition rather than long term value. My goal is to sell near 4pm of the inclusion date and go short. Then go long again. I didn't have the courage to do this with YHOO, but anyone who did made a bundle. Anyway, fishweed, I don't think entering the S&P killed YHOO. I think it peaked in early Jan for different reasons. However, entry into the S&P probably pushed it to its peak faster. A dollar amount of JDSU will need to be bought by index funds if the stock is selected, and more shares at lower price doesn't affect that. Good point, John. I was thinking more shares would be available, but since funds have to buy a dollar amount, that wouldn't make any difference. I really have no idea exactly when JDSU will go into the S&P; I'm just confident it's inevitable, and probably before the end of the summer. So, my view is that JDSU has a short-term market cap limit. I'm guestimating 600/share pre-split any time before 1/2001. (Any other opinions?) Entry into the S&P will boost it there faster, but no matter how many stock splits or other artificial (non-fundamental) boosts we get, we won't go over this limit. Of course, if the fundamentals change, that would change the limit. Maybe we'll get some insight into the future of the fundamentals next week when we find out what 30 new toys the engineers have come up with.