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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (754)	3/4/2000 7:10:00 PM
From: David Bogdanoff	Respond to of 52153

MZ; Thanks for in-depth analysis. One point was not mentioned: big pharma is facing the political challenge of government funding for drugs, either for all elderly or those who can't afford the monthly bill for prescription drugs. The market sees this as a negative because it gives the government a compelling reason to control drug prices, which it has the power to do. This is seen in many foreign countries and is the reason Americans are taking bus trips en masse to Canada or Mexico to buy the same drugs marketed in the US at a cheaper price. This is often mentioned in the media and is probably the biggest single factor for the recent poor pharma company stock performance. Regarding the biotech sector fever, I would note that this is after years of weak performance. If one factors in those years, this sector is only playing catch-up. Yes, we see 10x increases in some stocks, but this was from depressed valuations in some cases. I'm not saying that these valuations are rational, but I don't see the process any more irrational than dot com company valuations. And certain fundamental business factors favor the biotechs vis a vis the dot coms: 1. the no. of biotechs is smaller in number and declining versus the dot coms, by a big amount. 2. the barriers to entry to the drug market are sky high compared to most any other industry, whereas the barriers to entry for dot com companies is lower than most any other companies. 3. We cannot live without pharmaceutical products (literally!), whereas the benefits of typical dot com companies are only economic at best, and not yet profitably so in most cases. The potential to cure deadly diseases and extend healthy productive years of life makes biotech products far more important than simply greater efficiences in distribution of goods and services and opening of new commercial markets. All IMHO. David

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (754)	3/4/2000 9:58:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

A plea for therapeutic help. A member of my church has stage II Hodgkins. Does anyone know of any Phase III open label trials that they have followed that they find very positive based on the data and/or technology, especially non-cytotoxic? (Or possible double blind where there has been a precedent for companionate use?) We live in Carbondale IL, a small town in the midst of an economically depressed, fairly sparely populated area, thus not exactly a center of oncology expertise. Any help will be greatly. Please feel free to reply via public post, private post, or private e-mail (sdavis@midwest.net) Thanks, Scott