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To: BigBull who wrote (61447)	3/4/2000
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

To all new lurkers and other interested parties: This report from the BBC says it all: news.bbc.co.uk But supply is so squeezed that even this increase might not be enough to ease prices. Peter Gignoux, analyst with Salomon Smith Barney, said: "This market needs to see real barrels, not promises. That's what's going to bring prices down." ------------------------------------------------------------ Any OPEC increase of less than 2 mbpd will result in ongoing shortages. 2.5 mbpd will bring stasis ie. no change in ongoing world wide stocks, thus a price range for crude in the mid twenties to low thirties. 3.0 and above will result in stock builds with prices in the low to mid twenties. My bet is for a rise in production from OPEC of 1.5 to 2.0 mbpd. Everybody knows this will do the following. 1. Take political pressure off OPEC. 2. Keep prices in the high twenties, where OPEC really wants them. All the talk, is now superfluous, OPEC should just announce and get it over with. The big surprise will be DEMAND. It ain't going back to 75 mbpd. Gore gets to deal with $40 oil. Ha Ha Ha! Bet on it! Bull PS. All you OPEC boys are listening, right? <vbg>

To: BigBull who wrote (61447)	3/4/2000 10:13:00 AM
From: Eclectus	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

BB, I take it you have not agreed with Stephen Leeb in the past. You have my curiosity peaked, you'll have to explain. However, another, but less verbose comment from Stephen: Natural Gas Stocks -- With oil around $30 per barrel, the outlook for natural gas prices is very bullish. Not only is natural gas a cleaner fuel source but it's abundant throughout much of the U.S. If oil stays anywhere near its current levels, which is a pretty good bet given OPEC's determination to stick to supply constraints and the hard-charging global economy, natural gas will become much more attractive to consumers. That's likely to push natural gas prices even higher than their current levels. These prices are already in a strong uptrend, but you probably wouldn't guess that from the behavior of natural gas stocks. Part of the problem is that investors are so tech-centric that other strong areas of the market are getting little respect. But with natural gas stocks trading below the value of their gas reserves, investor myopia is giving shrewd players a chance to get into this group while it's still cheap.