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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (12223)	3/4/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

One Way to Measure Bob's Call Since Bob changed his allocation almost at the beginning of the year I intend to measure Bob's call at two points in time. One around July 1st, 2000 that gives one a six month comparison and the other around January 1st, 2001 which gives one a one year overview of the call. That will determine, in my mind, whether or not Bob's call was correct. (I sense a lot of disappointment on this board in the past few weeks but we seem to forget all the money we have made by following Bob's advice over the years.) Markets are not measured in minutes, hours or days,(maybe that is the old way of thinking), but in weeks and months. Further, (I was going to say we should all keep in mind but I am not), I will keep in mind that by following Bob's advice for the past 15 years or so I have done better than following my own advice and by following Bob's advice I have gotten to critical mass and may not have, at this point in time, if I had followed my own advice. P.S. In 1989, Bob recommended Vodafone, at that time called Racal Telecom, a small start up cellular company. Please read the article in today's Barron's if you wish to see how that investment advice turned out.

To: marc ultra who wrote (12223)	3/4/2000 10:03:00 AM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

Thanks for your post. It's very comforting to hear talk about the bear market, since I have sold much of my equity position. However, I'm starting to find it difficult to buy into the argument that it's just a couple of highly speculative tech and biotech stocks that are moving up. The indices that are now sitting at all time highs include the AMEX, the S&P 400, the Nasdaq, and, yes, even the Wilshire 5000, which IS the US stock market in its entirety. quote.yahoo.com Don't get me wrong, I'm trying to believe your position. I've done a lot of selling over the past few months based on the assumption that Bob is correct in his market outlook. I want it to be true. It's just getting harder and harder to believe. Best wishes, I2

To: marc ultra who wrote (12223)	3/4/2000 9:03:00 PM
From: blankmind	Respond to of 15132

Marc, money is actually going in to equities; not the other way around. - As proof: I cite Barron's which has a table of inflows/outflows in to all the mutual fund sectors, and this week has +12 bill in to stock mutual funds - Lately, it's been about a +8 bill positive. - - every week this year there's been a net inflow - baby boomers continue to sock away for their retirement - Supply of stock available continues to dwindle due to stock buybacks by the MSFT's, Aetna's, Bear Stearns, and others - Short interest is at a record high - Due to the dropping in long term rates; 30 year bond around 6.3%; and the DOW 30 already down around 14% from its highs; then I think it's a good time to be holding MSFT

To: marc ultra who wrote (12223)	3/5/2000 9:32:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: " Everybody complaining about the sell signal seems to be singing the same song, namely my hot tech stock took off after I sold. I have stocks that have doubled, tripled and quadrupled since the sell...." Good grief, what is wrong with this picture folks? Pinch yourself. Really, what could possibly fundamentally change in any company's prospects to cause such a run in such a short period? For most companies, the answer is "NOTHING." So let's be frank here. This a a greater fool type of environment and if you want to play then go ahead and take the risk at the NAZ Casino. But this is as close to on-line gambling that one will ever see in the market. And for those who say that they are long term investors in the hot tech land, you better look at who is sitting at the blackjack table next to you. If you run with the speculators, you are one whether you care to admit it or not. Re: "I would not make any final judgements until we see if the S&P falls 20% and then see what happens in the NASDAQ. I suspect it will be extremely ugly." In order for the S & P 500 to get a 20% plus correction, the Naz must correct first IMO.