Article on the wireless data market....
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Wireless world spawning new breed of data-driven device
By Mark LaPedus
Electronic Buyers' News
(03/03/00, 04:46:50 PM EDT)
The market's infatuation with wireless networks is triggering a metamorphosis at the system level and creating demand for a new generation of communications ICs that merge voice with data.
With Internet access as their watchword, traditional platforms like cell phones and PCs, as well as a raft of emerging thin clients, PDAs, and other portable electronic devices, are plugging in and turning on to the Web through an array of wireless protocols.
As evidenced by the buzz generated at this week's CTIA Wireless 2000 show in New Orleans, the stakes are huge for OEMs and component suppliers alike. The worldwide market for wireless data services is expected to more than triple, from 25.2 million subscribers in 2000 to 88.6 million by 2006, according to Allied Business Intelligence Inc., an Oyster Bay, N.Y., research firm.
There are no clear winners in the fledgling market, and predictions vary as to which platform will dominate the wireless landscape. But one thing is clear: The day is fast disappearing when voice features alone will satisfy the bulk of the wireless market's requirements.
?Wireless is moving from voice only to a voice/data paradigm,? said Ronald Smith, vice president and general manager of Intel Corp.'s Wireless Communications and Computing Group, in an interview at the show. ?This will give us a lot of opportunities in the market.?
One of the more celebrated developments at CTIA was in Internet-accessible notebook PCs. For some time, a small number of OEMs have pushed GSM-based PC Cards that plug into a notebook, enabling users to obtain wireless data at a sluggish 9.6 Kbits/s-about six times slower than today's analog modems. In Japan, systems makers have had limited success with laptops that support the country's PHS wireless protocol, which is capable of a 64-Kbit/s rate.
At CTIA, two companies-AirPrime Inc. and LSI Logic Corp.-teamed up to develop a low-cost PC Card using the CDMA standard to obtain wireless data at 14.4 Kbits/s.
AirPrime, a Santa Clara, Calif., start-up founded last year by former employees of Hewlett-Packard Co., will build its PC Card around a CDMA-based chipset from LSI Logic as part of an agreement between the companies, said AirPrime president and chief executive Paul Sethy. The card, to be resold on an OEM basis by Compaq, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and other PC makers by year's end, will cost about $200, he said, adding that demand for the device is surging.
?If you asked me if wireless data would take off in a CDMA network, I would have said no a few years ago,? he said. ?However, we're already sold out of our product for the next 24 months. We already have orders for 2 million units, and that's on the low side.?
LSI Logic's CDMA-based chipset is capable of supporting wireless data at 64 Kbits/s, according to Greg Helton, director of wireless products at the Milpitas, Calif., company. While LSI Logic pledges its next-generation chip will support higher rates, the net speed of wireless platforms is limited by the service carrier's infrastructure, which limits the rates today to 14.4 Kbits/s.
Despite its current supplier agreement, AirPrime said its next card will incorporate an upcoming line of CDMA chipsets from Qualcomm Inc. that are expected to support wireless data at speeds up to 2 Mbits/s.
Qualcomm is developing a high-speed wireless-data technology as part of its CDMA-based chipset strategy, according to Johan Lodenius, senior vice president of marketing at the San Diego-based company. Dubbed High Data Rate, the technology has garnered support from Hitachi, Lucent, and other equipment makers, he said. Qualcomm this week also rolled out its latest CDMA-based chipsets-the MSM3300 and MSM5100.
While the concept of tetherless Internet access is intriguing, some question its viability in the face of rapidly evolving cell-phone designs. ?There are some major trade-offs among the various technologies,? said Edward Snyder, an analyst at Chase H&Q, San Francisco. ?But, in the end, the cell phone will win over the PDA [and other devices]. The cell phone provides enough capabilities for wireless services for most users.?
Others disagree. ?I feel very uncomfortable when people tell me they will use a cell phone as the man-made interface to obtain data,? said Kenneth Taylor, president of Kenneth Taylor & Associates Inc., Medford, Ore. ?The problem with the cell phone is the tiny size of the screen. Why squint at a cell phone to obtain your data when you can simply go to a notebook computer??
Still others believe wireless-based PC Cards will remain a respectable niche, that is, until carriers deploy new higher-speed data services such as GPRS, Edge, and third-generation technology. 3G, for example, will enable the new chips coming from the likes of Qualcomm to optimize their full 2-Mbit/s data rate, according to observers.
?We've been selling [GSM-based PC Cards] for about a year,? said a spokeswoman for Xircom Inc., Thousand Oaks, Calif. ?But until the carriers deploy higher-speed data networks, we don't see [wireless-based PC Cards] as a mass-market product.?
Cell-phone OEMs, on the other hand, dismissed the notion that a market will emerge for wireless-based PC Cards. ?We were the first company to have a [wireless card for the PC] in 1994, but this market is pass‚ for us,? said a spokeswoman for Finish-based cell-phone giant Nokia.
Recently, Nokia announced the latest member of its 9000 family of mobile devices, which combines a PDA, cell phone, and other functions in the same unit. ?We've made various enhancements to improve the screen,? the spokeswoman said. ?If you look at it, there will be more and more demand for [a new breed of portable system].? |
