To: Ciao who wrote (1452 ) 3/4/2000 2:58:00 PM From: Gordo Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1762
Ciao & JT, Good to see that there are still some rational people left in these insane markets. Every time the market reaches a new high or another mining shell on the CDNX "re-invents" itself as an Internet play and rockets 1000%, I reach for the bookshelf and grab Burton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" to re-read chapter 2 entitled "The Madness of Crowds" - an excellent read on the history of hysteria in capital markets starting with the Dutch tulip bulb frenzy in the 1600s. What is equally terrifying for me is when I read some of the posters on discussion groups like Stockhouse who have never known a bear market, who think that everything goes up forever, and (even more terrifying) buy companies without knowing what business they are in, what products they have, or ever looking at a financial statement. Some of these posters don't even know basic financial terms like market cap, float, P/E ratio, EPS and yet the are throwing their hard-earned money at these penny stocks which have become daytrader's toys. The pros are running the stocks up in a hype rally and then dumping the shares on the newbies who cling to some naive hope that they will go back up as they continue to fall. Classic pump and dump. The hardest lesson that I have had to learn is not knowing when to buy, but knowing when to sell (especially the psychological barrier of selling losers as some part of our psyche doesn't want to admit we made a mistake). Maybe someday I'll write a book about this - I already have the title picked out - "The Fleecing of Innocents". Anyway, it is making it increasingly difficult to find quality picks out there. My largest holding is currently OML on the CDNX - this is still a solid company with good people and (gasp!!) EARNINGS that are growing. I still hold some TOM, although I have sold enough so that everything I am playing with now is profits. I am currently increasing my O & G holdings - recently added some more URC, and LBR. LBR is particularly attractive as it is trading at about 1.5X forecast 2000 cash flow (cash flow based on assumptions of $21 US oil price). I am also toying with the idea of allocating about 10% of my holdings to "playing the hysteria" - short term investing in dogs for fun. Any other thoughts out there?