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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42192)	3/4/2000 10:39:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

George do not get to optimistic about oil. On an inflation adjusted basis oil prices should be around $28 to $30 more or less. As I anticipate a weakening of the dollar due to the huge trade deficit, oil may actually stay above $30 for a longer while than many think. February PPI and CPI should be interesting as they eliminated the rise in oil prices in January and mitigated the December/November increases. BWDIK Haim

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42192)	3/4/2000 10:52:00 AM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

George: "Lots of room on the upside if oil drops to $25 as I expect." FWIW, there is an article or two in Bearon's suggesting a diff direction for oil or at least a maintenance of the current price - something about OPEC being back or something :-)

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42192)	3/4/2000 11:16:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Advance/Decline and Moving Average Relationships By Sector: Mar 3, 2000 percent stocks advance percent stocks over MA sector 5 d 21 d 63 d 250d 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- General Market 03/03 66 50 50 52 62 52 49 46 low 02/25 30 39 45 49 36 38 41 42 02/18 42 38 45 50 37 41 44 43 high 3 02/17 46 41 48 51 47 47 48 45 low 01/28 25 45 55 48 26 39 46 44 high 2 01/14 54 63 62 49 62 62 59 49 low 01/05 35 48 51 46 38 48 50 44 high 1 12/31 65 58 56 49 72 66 61 48 low 10/18 16 24 26 51 19 23 24 35 Aerospace/Defense 49 40 62 36 45 43 43 36 Apparel (incl Retail) 67 43 30 34 63 52 41 22 Automotive 54 32 29 27 51 24 29 20 Banks 52 16 6 9 45 20 13 7 Biotechnology 79 96 99 96 83 93 97 96 Building/Construction 64 34 24 24 55 41 27 13 Chemical 58 28 32 39 46 34 25 27 Commercial Svcs 60 43 51 46 59 45 43 49 Computer Equipment 72 79 80 77 72 74 78 82 Consumer Nondurable 66 29 27 17 51 42 29 22 Drug (excl Biotech) 70 61 59 51 57 57 58 62 Electronics (incl Semi) 81 87 89 89 79 83 88 88 Environmental 50 32 36 36 45 41 36 36 Financial (incl S&L) 62 35 31 38 60 45 39 28 Foods 49 29 22 16 36 29 19 12 Healthcare 68 59 61 50 62 58 58 47 Household Products 55 35 33 38 45 35 33 25 Insurance 51 20 12 13 41 23 14 6 Internet 65 60 60 64 69 61 60 68 Leisure 52 40 33 41 55 43 34 26 Machinery 70 40 34 43 47 43 32 22 Media 69 42 48 62 61 39 37 51 Metals (excl Gold) 57 21 27 51 42 35 22 21 Oil & Gas 85 68 63 81 83 76 67 53 Paper Products & Pkg 52 20 26 38 42 26 16 14 Real Estate 59 27 42 21 54 39 30 13 Retail 68 35 29 32 61 45 31 24 Semiconductors 89 97 98 99 90 91 98 99 Software 74 78 78 83 77 75 74 82 Telecommunications 82 86 86 90 83 80 87 90 Transportation 63 38 31 32 53 40 28 22 Utilities 72 21 23 33 50 27 28 20 New Highs and Lows for Market ( 3710 stocks sans CEFs, ETFs) sector 20-days 40-days 63-days 1-year ---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- General Market 03/03 544 - 244 406 - 186 359 - 155 298 - 118 03/01 594 - 368 463 - 295 425 - 251 338 - 179 low 02/25 293 - 696 239 - 570 216 - 484 190 - 314 02/18 219 - 760 190 - 592 170 - 505 130 - 318 high 3 02/17 462 - 456 379 - 333 340 - 267 278 - 188 low 01/28 92 - 631 73 - 401 64 - 311 40 - 188 high 2 01/14 582 - 197 407 - 130 363 - 97 229 - 63 low 01/04 113 - 548 74 - 375 65 - 266 32 - 153 high 1 12/31 679 - 111 468 - 74 402 - 54 262 - 35 low 10/18 72 - 904 48 - 715 32 - 613 22 - 289 New 20-day Highs and Lows By Sector sector num 03/03/00 02/25/00 02/18/00 02/11/00 ---------------------- --- --------- --------- --------- --------- Aerospace/Defense 47 3 - 6 2 - 5 3 - 11 2 - 15 Apparel (incl Retail) 88 14 - 4 2 - 19 2 - 23 4 - 19 Automotive 41 4 - 2 2 - 9 0 - 10 1 - 14 Banks 112 4 - 13 2 - 38 1 - 66 1 - 29 Biotechnology 72 21 - 0 17 - 1 23 - 0 16 - 3 Building/Construction 112 9 - 14 2 - 32 5 - 25 2 - 35 Chemical 71 6 - 9 0 - 20 4 - 19 2 - 34 Commercial Services 263 22 - 18 9 - 50 12 - 52 25 - 47 Computer Equipment 127 32 - 3 18 - 10 11 - 11 27 - 5 Consumer Nondurable 41 2 - 4 1 - 18 2 - 10 2 - 13 Drug (excl Biotech) 70 8 - 4 10 - 13 9 - 14 4 - 17 Electronics (incl Semi) 241 78 - 5 43 - 12 29 - 12 28 - 12 Environmental 22 2 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 6 Financial (incl S&L) 124 18 - 11 6 - 26 2 - 46 4 - 27 Foods 56 3 - 14 4 - 25 1 - 16 4 - 23 Healthcare 175 31 - 8 21 - 30 20 - 23 9 - 32 Household Products 40 3 - 5 2 - 4 0 - 5 2 - 10 Insurance 98 5 - 18 1 - 24 0 - 30 1 - 42 Internet 316 55 - 13 31 - 44 22 - 59 42 - 30 Leisure 121 8 - 16 11 - 22 2 - 22 4 - 16 Machinery 48 4 - 2 0 - 17 1 - 12 1 - 21 Media 84 8 - 2 2 - 25 4 - 36 4 - 13 Metals (excl Gold) 78 1 - 3 4 - 25 4 - 14 0 - 21 Oil & Gas 165 37 - 6 6 - 29 5 - 27 7 - 31 Paper Products & Pkg 50 2 - 7 1 - 20 0 - 19 1 - 17 Real Estate 105 7 - 11 3 - 22 0 - 18 3 - 32 Retail 255 24 - 14 7 - 56 4 - 75 14 - 62 Semiconductors 121 48 - 0 24 - 2 12 - 1 12 - 0 Software 178 49 - 3 28 - 11 20 - 16 27 - 11 Telecommunications 216 65 - 1 48 - 6 21 - 24 35 - 14 Transportation 88 12 - 4 5 - 18 5 - 13 2 - 22 Utilities 112 9 - 9 0 - 55 4 - 51 1 - 36 The following highlights a sector in which the 4-week base highs and lows turned positive. Highlighted Sector - Internet sub-sector num Highs/Lows Stocks Making 20-day Highs ---------------------- --- ---------- ------------------------------ Content Aggregators 18 4 - 0 CNET, INKT, LOOK, VERT Financial Services 19 3 - 1 SCH, OPAY, WITC Incubator/Venture Funds 7 2 - 0 CMGI, SFE Internet Access Providers 28 4 - 1 BIZZ, FREE, IGLD, PSIX Miscellaneous Services 40 8 - 1 DRTN, EGAN, EXDS, NAVI, NSOL, ORCC, SAPE, SCNT Marketing/Advertising 22 5 - 1 EPNY, RRRR, WEBT, XACT, YESM Retailing 46 2 - 3 BFLY, PCLN Security 17 5 - 0 AXNT, CHKP, ISSX, SCUR, SNWL Software 54 15 - 1 ARBA, ARTG, BVSN, BWEB, CFLO, CMRC, CYSV, MACR, NETE, NSPK, OMKT, RDWR, SWCM, USIX, VIGN Specialty Content 65 7 - 5 ADBL, CHINA, CYBA, EDGR, JFAX, KOREA, NTWO