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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Emmo who wrote (13602)	3/4/2000 3:16:00 PM
From: Apakhabar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14266

Has somebody estimated the cost of advertising Smackdown? I am wondering if this expense is the reason for BF's low guidance. As far as TA goes, it is worth remembering that the data is only data, and that predictions depend on the skill of interpreting the data. I think of TA the way I think of a level 2 screen. As a trader, I rely completely on what I see on the level 2 and I could not day-trade without it. However, it took me nearly four months to learn how to read it in a way that could make me money. Basically, I had to learn that every rule has its exceptions, footnotes and mitigating circumstances. In short, it's complicated. One of the TA guys I recently had an exchange with really hated the idea that the THQ TA situation could be "complicated" by such factors as the short interest, comments in the media, the timing of BF's calls to the analysts, SELZ sitting on the inside bid all day after issuing a buy reco, and even the fact that during the past five years THQ has only had options-trading for two years. A lot of guys hate complications because it means there is uncertainty afoot. But uncertainty is a fact of the stock market that everyone should get comfortable with. It's funny that some TA guys get so heebie-jeebied by a little uncertainty. But if there were no uncertainty, stocks would never fluctuate as wildly as they do. At the very least, here is what everyone should recognize about TA: The yearly high of a stock is on average twice its yearly low. THQ's high seems to be about three or four times its low since 1995. When a stock hits its yearly low virtually everything about it technically will look like shit. When it's at a high, it will look totally over-bought. I think it's just Stock Market 101 that everyone understand that TA can help the long-term investor recognize highs and lows-- not the absolute high or low, but highs and lows nonetheless. Even you long-term investors should recognize this pattern because (unless your target exit is a buyout) you will, one day, sell your THQ. In summary, using TA to make a specific prediction like "the stock will go from 17 to 12" or "the stock will go from 17 to 60" is just guessing. But is it guessing to say that THQ is bound to hit a yearly low and it's going to look terrible when it does? I give credit to all here who recently pointed out that the stock is suffering from its seasonal low because this one comment understands the basic premises of TA.