Cross post from RB boards:
By: raylopez99
Reply To: 595 by rh53063 Sunday, 5 Mar 2000 at 1:27 AM EST
Post # of 613
VASO's TRUE WORTH !!!(Financial Calculator Analysis)VASO / Heart Disease Facts:
Background info: 600,000 bypass operations a year, a $100 billion dollar industry. One in six bypass operations can be replaced by PTCA (percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty); 12 million heart patients, 2/3rds don't need or postpone bypass. 1/4 million fatal heart attacks/yr., 1 million heart attacks / yr.
Angina (chest pain) is one possible symptom of hardening of the arteries (atherosclerotic disease). VASO treats angina and thereby treats atherosclerotic disease by increasing blood flow throughout the body.
Presently (pre-VASO) you can fight heart disease (atherosclerotic disease) three ways: (1) drugs/diet/exercise (works over time, if you start early) (2) PTCA or (3) surgery. I might add, now with VASO's EECP, there is a fourth way.
PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS USING A FINANCIAL CALCULATOR:
A present value analysis yields the following six values for VASO, given a discount rate of 8% a year (which is what 30 year bonds give), and given that only one procedure per patient per year is performed:
Order of Data is as follows: Scenario Number (1 through 6) / No. of procedures per year / Dollars per procedure / Total $ per year / Present Value, using a discount rate of 8% / Dollars per share VASO assuming 52 million shares outstanding
#1 100,000 1000 $100,000,000 $112,500,000.00 $2.16
#2 100,000 4000 $400,000,000 $450,000,000.00 $8.65
{Note the difference between assuming only $1000 a procedure, which IMHO is low, versus $4000 a procedure}
#3 400,000 4000 $1,600,000,000 $1,800,000,000.00 $34.62
{Note that 400,000 is the maximum number of potential VASO patients assuming the ratio of two-thirds of the current 600,000 bypass operation patients that doctors estimate don't need or should postpone bypass is correct.}
#4 2,000,000 1000 $2,000,000,000.00 $2,250,000,000.00 $43.27
{2 million patients is one-sixth (12%) of the total number of heart patients, so if VASO can capture one-sixth of the market it would be worth $43 a share, even if VASO only makes $1000 per procedure}
#5 6,000,000 1000 $6,000,000,000.00 $6,750,000,000.00 $129.81
{Assuming VASO can eventually capture one-half (50%) of the market, and with only $1000 per procedure (low IMHO), VASO would be worth $130 a share}
#6 6,000,000 4000 $24,000,000,000.00 $27,000,000,000.00 $519.23
{Same as #5, but assuming a more reasonable $4000 per procedure, VASO is worth over $500 a share}
Background heart disease info:
Many persons having severe angina because of atherosclerotic disease can be treated with drugs, such as propranolol and nitrates, which enable the heart to work more efficiently. Those who do not obtain relief with pharmacologic means can often be treated by a form of surgery called coronary bypass. In this procedure, which became established in the 1970s, a section of vein from the leg is sewn into the blocked coronary artery to form a bridge around the atherosclerotic region. In most recipients the operation relieves the pain of angina and in many persons it prevents a fatal heart attack. By 1986 more than 225,000 patients were undergoing these procedures each year in the U.S.
A second surgical procedure that was developed during the 1970s to treat atherosclerotic heart disease is balloon catheterization, technically called percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). In this operation a wire with a balloon on the tip is inserted into an artery in the leg and threaded through the aorta into the coronary artery. When the balloon reaches the atherosclerotic area, it is inflated. The plaque is compressed and normal blood flow is reestablished. It is estimated that about one in six coronary bypass operations can be replaced by this less dangerous procedure.
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