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INSIGHT Website EXCLUSIVE: CHINA WAR PLAN AGAINST TAIWAN AND U.S. 3/3/00 - By J. Michael Waller The People?s Republic of China is actively planning a military invasion of Taiwan and is preparing to wage war against the United States ? including firing its small arsenal of strategic nuclear missiles on the territory of the United States ? if Washington attempts to defend the island. In an internal document from the Chinese Communist Party?s Central Military Commission to all its regional commanders, Beijing says it hopes to absorb Taiwan through nonviolent means but warns of an ?increased possibility for a military solution,? arguing: ?It is better to fight now than [in the] future ? the earlier, the better.? In the document, (see "China Prepares for War" </archive/200003057.shtml>) Beijing envisions a blitzkrieg-like attack on Taiwan, launching a ?first fatal strike? so that ?the Taiwan forces have no way to organize effective resistance.? Under this plan, ?we will be able to control Taiwan before the U.S. intervention and then concentrate our forces to fight the U.S.? The paper, distributed to commanders in August 1999, urges military leaders to ?be well prepared for war? with Taiwan and, if necessary, the United States, following Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui?s ?two-country theory,? in which the Republic of China on Taiwan would seek independent statehood. The Communist Chinese leadership views Lee?s position as a threat to the territorial integrity of the People?s Republic and argues that if allowed to stand would promote mainland China?s disintegration by encouraging independence for Tibet and other occupied areas. The paper says that large-scale coastal and inland military exercises planned for Sept. 1999 were intended not only to intimidate Taiwan but ?to adapt our armed forces to cross-the-Straits operations.? Beijing anticipates the passive support of Russia in a Taiwan invasion. A summit between Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and others in Kazakhstan that same month was intended on Beijing?s part to help reduce ?the traditional pressure along our northeast and northwest borders, and increase the proportion of forces which can be moved to the southeast coastal regions,? as well as to keep open ?land routes during the war ? in case we are forced to fight a full-scale war against the U.S.? Insight has obtained a copy of this startling document, which has been translated into English. (Click here to read the full document.) </archive/200003057.shtml> The purpose of the document is to make ?high-ranking commanders in non-combat as well as combat positions ? well aware of the following issues so as to better understand the strategic decisions made by the Party?s Central Committee and be well-prepared for the war in their units based on the rapidly-changing relationships with Taiwan.? The document tells commanders to understand the party?s thinking behind its preparations and ?a wave of politically-oriented military exercises? intended ?to raise the political consciousness of all commanders and soldiers up to a level required by war.? Peaceful reunification with Taiwan, according to the Central Military Commission paper, ?is still the best option? for Beijing?s long-term interests, as military options would be disruptive of the Party?s economic development goals. The document says it is very unlikely that European countries would aid in Taiwan?s defense, but anticipates that the U.S. would attempt to defend against an attack. Therefore, prior to an invasion of Taiwan, ?we must take into account the above [diplomatic] factors and use diplomatic leverage to minimize international resistance.? Beijing?s crackdown on the Falun Gong spiritual group, the document says, was aimed at crushing separatist sentiment. ?To outlaw ?Falun Gong? was a preemptive measure aimed at the ultimate resolution of [the] Taiwan issue,? according to the document, ?not only eliminating domestic trouble, but paving the way for reunification as well.? The Party leaders seem pleased with the weakness of international protests: ?Negative international reaction has proven to be limited, and the protest from the U.S. was particularly pale and powerless, fully demonstrating that our Party has the ability and courage to gain advantage in complicated domestic and international struggles.? Senior Chinese military officials, the document says, disclosed ?some information on strategic weaponry so that the U.S. will exercise some caution in decision-making and be aware that it would have to pay a price if it decided to intervene in a military conflict. The purpose is to prevent the U.S. from being deeply involved even if a war becomes unavoidable so that the losses on both sides of the Taiwan straits will be minimized throughout the war. The main point is deterrence, which is the test for a peaceful solution. The test is within the strategic scope of taking initiative and promoting good timing.? Beijing is convinced that, even in its much weaker military state, it can prevail in a war against the United States. ?Taking into account of possible intervention by the U.S. and based on the development strategy of our country, it is better to fight now than [in the] future ? the earlier, the better,? the military document says. ?The reason being that, if worst comes to worst, we will gain control of Taiwan before full deployment of U.S. troops. In this case, the only thing the U.S. can do is fighting a war with the purpose of retaliation, which will be similar to the Gulf War against Iraq or the recent bombing of Yugoslavia as far as its operational objective is considered.? If the above scenario cannot be avoided, an early war will delay the success of our reform whereas a later war will jeopardize the full achievement of the reform.? The document says China has experience in ?fighting the U.S. forces under modern warfare conditions. In that war, the Chinese forces were mainly responsible for air defense [of North Vietnam] and accumulated a whole set of experience in this regard.? Beijing anticipates that the United States will not be able to maintain its forces in combat against China for an extended period. The document reasons that the conflict will not escalate into a nuclear missile exchange, because the U.S. will lose its will to fight and withdraw after suffering serious casualties, while the Chinese side will be able to absorb heavy casualties and prevail. ?Our principle is ?willing to sustain major losses of our armed forces to defend even just one square inch of land,?? the document says. ?If the U.S. forces lose thousands or hundreds of men under our powerful strikes, the anti-war sentiment within their country will force the U.S. government to take the same path as they did in Vietnam.? Even so, Beijing is prepared to use its small strategic nuclear force against the overwhelmingly superior United States: ?In terms of deterrence, there is not any difference in practical value. So far we have built up the capability for the second and the third nuclear strikes and are fairly confident in fighting a nuclear war. The PCC has decided to pass through formal channels this message to the top leaders of the U.S. This is one of the concrete measures that we will take to prevent the escalation of war in the spirit of being responsible. ?However, conceptually we are fully prepared for a prolonged warfare.? Prolonged warfare will work to our advantage and enable us to defeat the enemy, which will be one of our strategic options to win the war under extreme circumstances.?
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China Prepares for War Insight Uncovers a Confidential Red Chinese Document Showing That China Is Preparing for War With Taiwan ___________________________________________________ ***CONFIDENTIAL*** Document of Office of the Central Military Commission (OCMC) OCMC Serial No. [1999] 65 OCMC Notice on Forwarding the Document "Watching Closely for Changes in the Relationships with Taiwan and Enhancing the Awareness by Military Leadership of the Current Situation" All Regional Garrisons, All General Departments Affiliated to the Central Military Commission (CMC), All Arms and Services, All Corps Headquarters, All Provincial Garrisons, and All Prefecture Garrisons: Attached please find the document "Watching Closely for Changes in the Relationships with Taiwan and Enhancing the Awareness by Military Leadership of the Current Situation," which has been drafted by the General Political Department approved by the CMC Conference to be distributed down to the commanders at the division level. Please read carefully and implement seriously. Office of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China August 10, 1999 (Seal of the CMC) Watching Closely for Changes in Relationships with Taiwan and Enhancing Awareness of Military Leadership of Current Situation As soon as Li Denghui put forth the "two country theory," which aimed at splitting our motherland, the ranks and files of our armed forces were filled with indignation. At all levels within our armed forces, seminars, discussions, presentations, and symposiums were held to condemn Li Denghui's evil intention of splitting the motherland in open disregard of the national interests. The CMC has, on behalf of the armed forces, made a solemn commitment to the Party and the Country that "we shall not sit idle while allowing one inch of territory to be split away from the map of our motherland," which conviction is obviously based on solid political ground given the above-mentioned militant zeal of "opposing split, committed to reunification." Such a sentiment has provided a precious opportunity to promote political goals within our armed forces. The current priority of our political work is: holding high the great banner of Deng Xiaoping Theory, unifying closely around the Party's Central Committee with Comrade Jiang Zemin as its core, implementing the "Requirements" adopted at the Expanded Emergency Meeting of the CMC and "OCMC Notice on the Current Situation," further exposing and criticising the "two country theory," taking advantage of the strong determination of opposing the split and high emotions of nationalism and incorporate them into daily training, and ensuring that in carrying out the Party and the country's great strategy of reunifying the motherland, the people's army always retains firm and correct political goals, fully-charged patriotism, constant battle alert, and staunch and conquering-all operational capacity so as to make new contributions to the motherland. With this focus, high-ranking commanders in non-combat as well as combat positions should be well aware of the following issues so as to better understand the strategic decisions made by the Party's Central Committee and be well-prepared for the war in their units based on the rapidly-changing relationships with Taiwan. 1. To Fully Recognise the Subjective and Objective Factors Which Necessitate the Reunification of the Motherland To resolve Taiwan issue and achieve reunification is a matter of uttermost importance which reflects the intentions of the three generations of leaders of our country. In view of the overall world pattern as well as rapidly-changing domestic and international situations, to achieve the reunification in the foreseeable future has become a most important task facing the Party and the country and specific measures must be taken from now on. In this regard, all members of our armed forces must deepen their understanding of the following points. (1) Historical mission. National independence and reunification has remained the sole purpose of China's revolutinary movement throughout this century, including both the old democratic revolution led by Mr. Sun Yah-sen and the new democratic revolution led by our Party, both having attracted countless people of aspiration and integrity. The Northern Expedition and the War against Japan represented cooperations on different occasions between the Nationalist Party and the Communist Party and were based on the above goal. From this perspective, the reunification which our Party and country are committed to achieve represents the ultimate aspiration and interests of the Chinese nation throughout the current century. In terms of historical mission, the cause of reunification is based on past efforts and constitutes an issue of nationalism which goes beyond political parties and beliefs and represents the interests of all the Chinese people, including the people of Taiwan. (2) Taiwan issue has resulted from the Civil War and has never ceased to be an internal affair. The founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 symbolised the decisive victory of the revolutionary cause of the Chinese people on the Mainland. Because of the international and domestic situations at that time, Taiwan issue was temporarily shelved. However, since both sides accepted the political concept of one China, Taiwan issue was never internationalised. During the Korean War, when the Seventh Fleet moved into Taiwan, our government raised serious protests against the United States and pointed out that such a move had constituted an invasion, thereby clearly defining Taiwan issue as China's internal affair, which demonstrated a high degree of political sensitivity. After half a century's delay, the Chinese government's sovereignty over Taiwan has not changed; as a continuation of history, the substance of the Civil War has not changed, either. If military actions constitute the sole means to achieve reunification of the motherland, we must not concentrate on one point at the expense of the other. (3) We must create a complete image of a big country. Judging by the various elements which make up a big country, our country is certainly a big country. In the five thousand years of outstanding civilisation, our country has commanded a predominant position in the whole world. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, particularly after the reform and opening to the outside world, our country has not only stood up politically, but achieved remarkable progress in economy and strength. As a result, our country was able to regain its sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macao without resorting to war, which not only washed away the national humiliation since the Opium War, but also set the first example of ending the colonial rule with peaceful means in the world history. However, as long as Taiwan has not returned to the motherland, the unified image will remain incomplete, which is not only an emotional trauma for the Chinese people, but an issue involving the dignity of our country; it should not be neglected. If the fifty-year delay has been caused by historical background and various constraints, the situation today points exactly to the opposite -- it is now possible to accomplish the great cause of reunification from whatever perspective. (4) The damage to our country's interests and dignity. In the international political struggle, Taiwan issue has long since become a trump card by the anti-China forces and deteriorated into a malicious tumor that hinder the development of our motherland. Playing the Taiwan card and using it to contain China is a manifestation of the old cold-war thinking in the new international arena and an important means of opposing China by a handful politicians in the US Congress who cling desperately to the cold-war thinking. In terms of social system, it is expressed as anti-communist thinking; in terms of outlook, it is revealed as naked racial discrimination. In view of this situation, to resolve Taiwan issue and achieve the reunification as soon as possible not only involves our sovereignty and national dignity, but also directly relates to our country's development and important strategy in opposing world hegemonism. (5) An obstacle to diplomatic relations. With regard to international affairs, Taiwan issue is the biggest obstacle when it comes to implementing the principles of equality and mutual benefits. In recent years, the Taiwan authorities have been engaged in money diplomacy, capitalising on the economic difficulties of a number of small and weak countries and using money as baits to induce and infiltrate some countries which have had long-standing relationships with our country. As a result, we had to put in some efforts to counter such moves, not only giving diplomacy a greater-than-normal political weight, but also introducing unstable elements into the conventional reciprocity in international relations to seriously interfere with normal diplomatic affairs. On the other hand, because of Taiwan issue, when it comes to territorial disputes and effective protection of the interests of overseas Chinese, we have to consider many different factors and engage in tradeoffs. Consequently, some countries refuse to behave properly; on the contrary, they use their intermittent relations with Taiwan as bargaining chips when dealing with us, seriously harming the interests and reputation of our country. (6) Taiwan issue directly affects the solidarity of different nationalities within our country and constitutes the most serious hidden problem that could endanger the very existence of the Chinese nation. Ever since he came to power, Li Denghui has devoted himself to changing the one-nation principle followed by the previous leadership of the Nationalist Party and gradually turned Taiwan into a testing ground for splitting the motherland while colluding with the Dalai Lama and other traitors. The potential damage which could be caused by Li Denghui's "seven-block theory" in terms of instigating minority nationalities to split away from the motherland should not be underestimated. If Taiwan issue were to drag on, Taiwan would not only set an example for the handful of splittists among minority nationalities, but also become a base for splitting activities, in which case the whole nation would have to pay a heavy price. Commanders at all levels should enhance their understanding of the position adopted by the Party's Central Committee in regard to the reunification and carry out, at the same time of patriotic education, a wave of politically-oriented military exercises aimed at opposing splittism and promoting reunification so as to raise the political consciousness of all commanders and soldiers up to a level required by war. 2. Dialectical Relationship Between Taking Initiative and Timing in Resolving Taiwan Issue The principle followed by the Party's Central Committee (PCC) towards Taiwan issue is clear, namely, to continue to seek peaceful reunification under "one country, two systems." However, to prevent the splittists within Taiwan and international anti-China forces from splitting Taiwan away from the motherland, PCC has also stated that we would not give up the option of using military power. We have defined the latter in three different aspects, combining strategy and initiative. In view of the fact that the Taiwan authorities deliberately confused the nature of the dialogue between the two sides and avoided progress in reunification, the leaders of our country have on different occasions since the beginning of this year stated the principle that Taiwan issue would not be allowed to drag on indefinitely, which reflected the basic attitude of our Party and country in regard to the time frame and brought the reunification issue from front strategy to the phase of implementation in a stable and methodical manner, greatly enhancing the morale of the Party, the armed forces, and the people. This is a concrete example that our Party and country are capable of taking initiatives in achieving reunification; it is also an important symbol that the core of the leadership of our Party and country have reached political success and maturity. Based on the current situation, Li Denghui has pushed the relationships between the two sides into a dead end with his "two-country theory" and therefore stuck his foot across our bottom line, actually providing us with solid grounds for achieving reunification using military power. On the other hand, in citing historical evidence, depicting the current status quo, and disguising the "two-country theory" as an effort to seek reciprocity, Li Denghui and his followers also revealed their inner weakness, providing us with solid grounds as to timing. The meaning of timing is not limited to military operations, it also involves our strategic principle of seeking reunification through peaceful means. This is the main purpose of the General Political Department in distributing this document in accordance with the spirit of the CMC Conference. Commanders at all levels must come to a unified view in the following aspects. (1) Considering long-term interests, peaceful reunification is still the best option, which not only will ensure for the moment the safety and well-being of the Taiwan people, but is a practical solution which will be beneficial to the long-term stability of our country. First of all, because of the propaganda by the Taiwan authorities, ordinary people in Taiwan tend to have views very different from ours. If we opted for non-peaceful means, such differences will manifest themselves in various ways even after the reunification and cause instabilities. "Peaceful reunification and one country, two system" has reflected our Party's practical stance in the past decades and combined both possibilities. First and foremost, peace is emphasised. We must realise that in the foreseeable future peaceful reunification will be most beneficial to our country's development, prosperity, and lasting stability and is therefore a well-advised decision. Taking a glance across the world, all the contentions and wars taking place in various countries after the cold war have derived from two aspects: nationality and religion. In comparison, the role of ideology has been reduced. People on both sides of the Taiwan Straits are of the same race and share common ancestors, so there exists no social genes giving rise to animosities and hostilities based on nationality or religion. Moreover, the "one country, two system" principle has provided a common ground for resolving the differences in social system. In particular, we have been persistently following a policy of reform and opening to the outside world, which not only represents the interests of all nationalities on the mainland, but also reflects and incorporates the best interests of the Taiwan people in the long run. Under this overall prerequisite, the "two-country theory" put forward by Li Denghui has posed a serious challenge to peaceful reunification, totally wiping out the ground for the dialogue between both sides. However, does this mean the end of peaceful efforts? We should wait for the PCC to make the decision. (2) Li Denghui and his followers make up only a handful of people, who cannot represent the people in Taiwan in theory or in reality. Although many people in Taiwan are willing to keep the status quo, this only reflects their political short-sightedness caused by lack of understanding of the motherland's mainland and does not represent their interests and true wishes. The wilful wrongdoing of Li Denghui has led to heightened tension between the two sides; if a war breaks out, the first victims will be the Taiwan people. In this sense, when Li Denghui, in an attempt to split the motherland, marketed his own illegitimate idea under the disguise of public opinion despite the risk of provoking a war, he not only openly betrayed the Chinese nation, but went against the best interests of the Taiwan people. No matter how the situation evolves in future, what awaits Li Denghui will be a solemn trial by the people. However, we must realise that Li Denghui's days are numbered. His poor performance may serve to poison the relationships between the two sides, but will never change the fact that Taiwan is part of China. Nor will it prevent the overall trend that Taiwan will return to the arms of the motherland within a certain period of time. Based on such facts, although the Taiwan Straits crisis resulted from Li Denghui's behavior has increased the possibility of a military solution, we have to consider post-Li Taiwan political situation so as to decide on the best timing and correctly evaluate the political future of Taiwan on which the means of reunification rests. (3) Deciding on the best timing as far as foreign relations are concerned. Internationally, the many obstacles to the resolution of Taiwan issue have been put in by the United States, while Japan has a complicated attitude towards our handling of Taiwan issue, but because of historical and geographical reasons, Japan does not have the right to comment. EU has ideas different from those of the U.S. and strategically focuses on Europe, so they do not have direct interests in Taiwan issue. In recent years, the relationships between EU and our country have been developing smoothly, and therefore it is very unlikely that EU will fight a full-scale war with us simply because of the United States. In fact, none of the U.S., Japan, and West Europe has given up the one-China position. The "two-country theory" by Li Denghui was to them a source of trouble rather than a gift. Even from the standing point of the U.S., Li Denghui's behavior has long since crossed the bottom line of the Sino-US dialogue on Taiwan, which will make it think twice before intervention. When deciding on the timing, we must take into account the above factors and use diplomatic leverage to minimise international resistance. (4) The factor of deterrence. Based on strategic considerations, the CMC has decided to disclose, when appropriate, some information on strategic weaponry so that the U.S. will exercise some caution in decision-making and be aware that it would have to pay a price if it decided to intervene in a military conflict. The purpose is to prevent the U.S. from being deeply involved even if a war becomes unavoidable so that the losses on both sides of the Taiwan straits will be minimised throughout the war. The main point is deterrence, which is the test for a peaceful solution. The test is within the strategic scope of taking initiative and promoting good timing. Based on the international situation as well as realities on both sides of the Straits, Li Denghui obviously misjudged the situation when he threw out the "two-country theory" shortly before the end of his office in an attempt to destroy the well-established exchange channels and internationalise Taiwan issue. Ostensibly, he underestimated our determination and capability; in reality, he was blackmailing with foreign forces behind him in total disregard of the safety of the Taiwan people. In substance, his behavior constituted a sharp contrast to our concern for the safety and best interests of the Taiwan people while seeking reunification. To stay well-informed, be ready to take initiative, and grasp the best opportunity within our predetermined limits represent in a nutshell our high sense of responsibility for the Chinese nation. 3. Enhancing the Awareness Within Our Armed Forces of the Increased Possibility for A Military Solution and Certainty of Winning the War Should It Break Out The Sino-US relations are currently at a low ebb. However, in terms of mutual efforts to improve the bilateral relations, it should be pointed out that the US government is relatively more active. The U.S. believes that it has responsibilities for all the affairs in the world, but such a philosophy must find expressions in international cooperations, particularly among big countries. China is a big country and therefore the US government could never afford to neglect the existence of China in handling international affairs ever since the establishment of diplomatic relationships between the two countries. Such a trend has been strengthened after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. During the cold war, the United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in confrontation under the surface of detente. However, in carrying out exchanges with the U.S., we have followed the principle of mutual benefit and equality and aimed at maintenance of regional stability, which reflects normal bilateral relations. The Chinese government has its own principles in handling domestic and international affairs and will never be at the beckon and call of another country. Because of such an attitude, when disagreements arose between the two countries, some US politicians would nail China down to the position of the former Soviet Union through exaggeration and turn China into a potential opponent of the U.S. Pointing fingers at China based on the US social system and human rights standards is but an excuse, and the substance is to implement the hegemonism which would never prevail. In containing China, the U.S. has only one tangible means, which is Taiwan issue. In fact, both Jiang Jingguo and Li Denghui were presented with a historical opportunity to make contributions to the reunification of the motherland and could have become a hero in the Chinese history, because only by peaceful reunification can the strength of our nation remain intact: externally, to avoid fighting a war against the U.S. while internally, to grasp the opportunity to develop and achieve prosperity. Jiang Jingguo belonged to the second generation of the Nationalist-Communist dispute and was seriously constrained by his family background. Therefore, apart from sticking to the one-China concept, he failed to make due contributions to the reunification, which is historically regrettable. Although Li Denghui did not carry a similar historical burden, he was filled with animosity towards the Chinese nation, which gave rise to the instability in the relations between both sides of the Taiwan Straits and ultimately led to the current situation under which a military solution has to be considered. Li's behavior obviously caters to the taste of some anti-China US politicians, but when military actions become a must, neither Li Denghui nor those short-sighted anti-China US politicians will be able to control the outcome. Based on the long-term interests and current strength of our country and our armed forces, the question that we have to consider is not Taiwan's capability to defend itself or what kind of war will be fought if the U.S. intervenes, but our tactics and timing, with regard to which we provide you with the following points of reference. (1) The impact on economic development. Taking into account of possible intervention by the U.S. and based on the development strategy of our country, it is better to fight now than future -- the earlier, the better. The reason being that, if worst comes to worst, we will gain control of Taiwan before full deployment of the US troops. In this case, the only thing the U.S. can do is fighting a war with the purpose of retaliation, which will be similar to the Gulf War against Iraq or the recent bombing of Yugoslavia as far as its operational objective is considered, namely, to first attack from the sky and the sea our coastal military targets, and then attack our vital civil facilities so as to force us to accept its terms like Iraq and Yugoslavia. This is of course wishful thinking. However, before completely destroying the attacking enemy forces from the sea and their auxiliary bases which together constitute a threat to us, even if we successfully carry out interception and control the sky, our military and civil facilities |
