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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edward F.Fokken who wrote (7405)	3/5/2000 9:05:00 AM
From: James Connolly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

Good post from Raging Bull thread. ragingbull.com Regards JC. We're getting all sorts of mixed signals from management on revenues. First St. Dennis states in a published article that we will be a $1b company in 3 years. Here is the article: messages.yahoo.com Then Fiddler states we'll be at a billion in 2 years. St. Dennis now states on CNBC that based on the projected 30%+ growth rate we'll be there in 4 years. St. Dennis had a smile on his face and a "wink, wink" look in his eyes. Out of curiosity I looked at the numbers and feel this is where we are headed. Wind last 4 qs at $171mm - last q at $53.4mm INTS - waiting last q but for purpose of this discussion I'lluse $46m (last q was $43.6mm up from $35m) this puts annual at about $157. ESTC - Last year $28mm last q at $8.9mm (revs up nicely since wind agreement last year.) Based on above, revs for past 4 qs at $171 + $157 + $28 = $356. None of the most recent qs was less than a 10% increase quarter over quarter with most recent q (including my guess for ints) totaling $108.3mm. Lets be conservative and say they pick up only an additional $10mm a q in revs quarter to quarter. Projection would be q1 - $118mm q2 - $128mm q3 - $138mm q4 - $148mm total - $532mm for this year. Lets get real conservative and say 30% increase for following year so $532mm + $159mm = $691mm Another 30% for following year and we get $691 + $267 = $958mm. This I believe would qualify us as a billion company and we'd be there in 3 years max. By all accounts this area is just starting to boom and in my opinion the 30% rates are extremely conservative. I do beleive that St. Dennis is trying to downplay growth right now (maybe waiting for future conferences when more ears will be listening). I think someone said during the cc that we'll be updating guidance at the end of March. What should we be valued at? A former H&Q analyst used 12 times revs. If we take 12 * $532 we get $6.4bb or about $90 per share based on $70mm shares o/s. Even these numbers I beleive to be on the low side. Hang on everyone and be patient. We're going for a nice ride.