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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: clochard who wrote (46176)	3/5/2000 11:13:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

Steve how can you validate that. Yes it would not surprise me as Japan has a trade surplus with the US for several years and it is obvious they are sitting on piles of dollars, which they do not whish to exchange for Yens as not to drive the Yen higher. What puzels me is why they do not buy Euros. BWDIK Haim

To: clochard who wrote (46176)	3/5/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

I am by no means an expert, however your assumption of the foreign $ flow coming from Japan would be my second thought.I think that the sabre rattling coming from China regarding the attacking of Taiwan, if they don't pursue reunification,is another good possibility. With presidential elections this month (and a huge silicon park at Hinstchu), many firms with big bucks on both Taiwan and the Mainland might be looking for a safe place to park their currency.JMHO Either way ,I agree with your scenario that a huge demand of foreign money has been driving the price of the bond up. I think that could well be protected with a good increase in interest rates. I think we will suffer from a two pronged negative effect : 1)from an artificially high market price on oil (now high and going higher as global economies/demand expand) and 2) the fed's desire to slow down what is obviously an economy that is on fire from the global demand of our technology base. Technology has become the greatest wealth creator second to oil.The primary profits of tech go to American firms and some European.Oil goes to many third world countries and that has formed a pretty good global balance that spreads things around. JMHO One thing for certain we are in a very dynamic expansion that doesn't want to quit and I'm afraid interest rates might "need" to go higher than most would think. The next universal truth to be over expounded on is : As we were intoxicated on the disinflationary effects of the digital revolution which showed inflation as a neutral many commodity prices rose as the pace of the economy increased.This is a fair trade off - until the efficiencies of the digital world plateu and all we feel are the commodity based inflation effects. This evolution will be slow to wake us up and when it does the vast majority of savings will have been reaped and more bandwidth alone won't carry the wagon. siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com Bob