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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (6548)	3/5/2000 7:12:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: Mobile Wireless Obstacles- Facing Reality Thread- Now here's an article that generally sums up the problems facing wireless Internet access. I see that there is a 3G estimate for deployment in about four years. Applying my tech time rule, that makes it about eight years, as of today. So in the meantime, there is the good old legacy infrastructure that has to be depreciated and lived with for many more years. So as a, "here and now," type of investor, I look for ways the wireless carriers can leverage their current networks. BTW I personally would not be real surprised if Teledesic may beat all current wireless SPs in one swoop. If Gates and McCaw can maintain their enthusiasm for making that project happen and if it makes economic sense. But those are big IFs. -MikeM(From Florida) ******************** Wireless is the New Worldwide Wait** By Lawrence Aragon Redherring.com, March 02, 2000-- The collective memory of the technology industry is so poor you have to wonder whether it's lost its RAM. The latest example is the superhype over the wireless Internet, which had CEOs of major companies falling all over themselves at a trade show this week. Doesn't anyone recall the wireless hypesters of the early '90s? The same technical obstacles that kept their promises from coming true still aren't close to being overcome. Sun Microsystems president Ed Zander and Compaq Computer CEO Michael Capellas hopped on the bandwagon this week at the Wireless 2000 show in New Orleans, declaring that handheld devices will soon eclipse PCs as the primary way to access the Net. But grizzled wireless vets say the day when you can freely surf the Web with a phone or handheld is still years away. "It's yet another feeding frenzy," says Andrew Seybold, editor-in-chief of Andrew Seybold's Outlook, a wireless industry newsletter. "There are two words, wireless and Internet, that make rich and smart people very dumb." HYPE DREAMS Mr. Seybold isn't a crank. He's a realist. The straight-talking analyst has been in the wireless business since the mid-'70s, when he was a two-way radio salesman, so he's pretty much seen it all. "There are some real good deals being put together and some real good stuff happening here [at Wireless 2000]," he says, "but we have to go through all the hype and bullshit before we get there." The industry's key players are moving quickly to make sure they don't get left behind. Based on the flurry of press releases and statements by top industry execs at Wireless 2000, it seems that having a wireless strategy has become just as important as having an Internet strategy. Analysts who have been attending the wireless show for years say this year's show was a dramatic departure from the past. "There is a completely new buzz and pace," says Mark Lowenstein, executive vice president and director of the worldwide wireless practice for the Yankee Group. "Many of the companies exhibiting didn't even exist a year ago. It has a dot-com-esque feel about it." Also noteworthy were all the major companies, such as Microsoft, Sun, Palm, Compaq, and Amazon.com, that were on hand. Rather than make revolutionary declarations, they generally outlined how they are extending their existing business to mobile platforms. For instance, Bill Gates spoke about how new filtering technology in Windows 2000 can be used to deliver only desired emails to a person's Web-enabled phone. THE ROAD TO REALITY But analysts say a litany of technical and other issues must be resolved before the wireless Internet is a reality. Realistically, that's about four to five years off, say Mr. Seybold and Bill Frezza, a general partner at Adams Capital Management and a wireless executive and consultant for 14 years. To be fair, you can access the Internet wirelessly today. But what you can do on the Net is quite limited. The problem is not so much with the devices (although there are issues there, too) as with the underlying infrastructure. The networks weren't made to carry high-speed data. If you think your 56K modem is slow, try Web surfing on your phone at 9.6K. "The infrastructure is woefully inadequate for any kind of Web experience similar to what you have on your desktop," Mr. Frezza says. He ticks off a long list of other issues that need to be taken care of before the wireless Internet is a reality, such as nationwide wireless coverage; scalable networks that can handle heavy traffic; reliability (this reporter's interview with a wireless analyst calling from a cell phone was cut off no less than four times in ten minutes); a single cellular phone standard for voice and data; longer battery life; larger screen sizes on phones; lighter devices; better form factors; and lower cost. Some of these issues are being addressed, but they won't be resolved overnight. For example, all of the major wireless carriers are upgrading to 2.5GB networks -- through a software upgrade -- to give phone users 56K to 64K performance, the Yankee Group's Mr. Lowenstein says. He sees the upgrade as an intermediate step before high-speed third-generation (3G) cellular networks are in place in four years or so. THE BIG "IF" Analysts are confident that the obstacles will be overcome -- they're just not sure when. Some numbers to chew on: the Yankee Group expects the current 1.8 million subscribers to mobile data services (through laptops and other devices) to double this year. It also expects that 30 percent of the wireless phones that ship this year will be Web enabled and that virtually all cell phones shipping in 2001 will have built-in Web browsers. Mr. Seybold says that there are 500,000 two-way pager users in the United States today. If America Online can convince just 10 percent of its installed base to start using two-way devices to share instant messages, it could give the market a big boost, he says. But it all comes down to "if." There is so much work to be done and so many unanswered questions that no unbiased source is willing to say precisely when wireless technologies will be an integral part of our everyday lives. "This is something that's eventually going to happen," Mr. Frezza says. "It's inevitable. But, then again, it's been inevitable since the mid-'80s."

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (6548)	3/8/2000 11:08:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Hello MikeM54321, Thanks for the continuing stream of reading material! It's hard to keep up ... A couple of comments ... > Thread- I linked this to my post regarding how many > mobile wireless standards there are throughout the world. > Now comes this article about how many OS systems there > are competing for whatever space opens up for them. I've been closely following the evolution of the "handhelds", cell phone, and PDA technologies, while also closely watching the miniturization of the PC. I have to admit that it is going to be a real wild ride watching as the "laptop" moves more and more towards a portable computing platform, and the PDAs and Cell Phones merge into a handheld computing device. You list the OS platforms, but obviously the most important space will be the applications development since this is what will drive the functionality. > Here are just four mentioned: > -EPOC by Psion This appears to be the real front runner in the space, from my point of view. Symbian has done a great job of integrating, not only their own application development platform, but also Java. Most recently I read an article where Palm and Symbian are working together to allow the EPOCH OS to support Palm applications. > -CE by Microsoft From my perspective it will not be long before Microsoft drops this to a real limited OS for specific purposes. IMHO, the miniturization of PC technologies is reaching the point where you will be able to run a full PC OS on a handheld device. At that point, why case the market? For a company moving into this specific space, check out Xybernaut (XYBR) who recently received a patent on a very flexible architecture for a "core" computing and storage element which can be inserted into a variety of carriers - desktop, portable, wearable, and car, etc. I believe this is the way they will move their company, and that a good portion of the market will move. > -Palm by 3Com I'm thinking that their hardware platform is going to have to "morph" pretty quickly. They are going to be under a great deal of pressure from the likes of Symbian ... hence the partnership. I know that if I can get all the functionality of a Palm in my cell phone, then why buy a Palm? ;-) > -Mobile Linux by Redhat In this space, I'm seeing a "different" audience, and think that this is where the products like Xybernaut. In general I believe that the Linux attraction will occur with a device that becomes more of a wearable computer ... a "wearable laptop" due to the OS and user requirements. And I think that it is quickly becoming possible for a full PC to become handheld ... Scott C. Lemon