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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dave Beinke who wrote (10295)3/5/2000 11:21:00 PM
From: Afaq Sarwar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10479
 
Dave,

Once the S-1 is filed we'll have more and better information to value Sorrento Networks (Osicom?s Optical networking subsidiary) and Osicom. Until then it is difficult to estimate the fair value of FIBR and its underlying businesses and technologies in a reliable manner. I am still holding my shares based on this opinion that there is a significant upside yet to be realized from these present levels. This opinion is based on several factors that include:

1. The general consensus that is emerging among research organizations and optical networking/component companies that the metro DWDM is ready to take of in a big way.

2. Sorrento still has the leadership position in the metro DWDM sector, has a product that is shipping, has a technology that has been deployed with 16 or more customers, and still appears to have the best metro DWDM product available in the market. Their EPC product gives them significant additional advantage that none of their competitors has offered yet.

3. Comparable valuation of companies with similar product line and technologies. It can be argued that the market cap of Sorrento should be similar if not more than that of AVNX which has a present market cap of $14 bil. The value of Sorrento should be a significant fraction of the valuation of CIEN which has a present valuation of $24 bil. Similarly, a strong case can be made that the market cap of Sorrento should be at least a decent fraction of the market cap of SCMR which has a present market cap of $40 bil.

With these thoughts as a basis, I'll continue to hold until the filing of S-1 by Sorrento Networks sheds more light on the subject of valuation. The increasing interest by institutions at these level is making is fairly easy to stick to this point of view.

Regards,

Afaq Sarwar

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