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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (42298)	3/5/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Lee, the person who posted that was Heinz. He commented on some remark of mine.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (42298)	3/5/2000 7:29:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

PPI, CPI during triple witch expiration, full moon and then FOMC meeting. And let's not forget St. Patrick's day!<G> I figure that the full moon is gonna be in sync with option expiration until September ..

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (42298)	3/9/2000 3:35:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 99985

I think see what you are seeing, where the weekly has met its trend line, and its Stochs has touched down at zero and now is moving up. First, I do not see any divergences at this point so far. Second, if anything is going to show up, it will first in the daily time frame. All the weekly time frame can do is help the trader anticipate possible moves in the longer term future. This is assuming you are a short term position trader. But that last sell off on the weekly tells me there is some congestion range trading coming up before any "big move" is possible on the upside. Also the MACD I look at has breached its trend line to the downside for this weekly chart. This can mean either additional congestion coming up, or a further move down. We shall see which. On the daily chart, a small bottom was put in the caused price to spike up and settled back almost where it started off. Not very encouraging. But if price continues to hold support at about 125 3/16, after additional congestion style trading, there may be a move up on the daily chart worth noting. OBV has not breached its support as price has been selling off which is another positive sign. Volume has been increasing over the longer term showing increasing interest. There is also a doji put in on a move down to test a longer term trend line on the chart for today so far which is also encouraging for some upside. However, right now the bias is still to the downside on this stock with no price reversal in place. If the doji is in place by the close, we will need to see how the price of the stock responds to this candlestick. It is interesting to note that the convergence of two trend lines that can be drawn on the daily chart indicating an opportunity for a triangle formation which is prone to whipsawing and price reversals which can confuse a straightforward analysis in the near future. But so far volume has not been validating this possibility. Just some thoughts FWIW. Bob Graham PS: A retracement of over 50% this stock's last move up as can be seen on the daily chart is reason to be cautious until it puts in a bottom at this point. However, on the weekly chart, price has retraced to its fist fib point at 38.2 and is holding so far, which is promising. PPS: I hope there are those here that can see the current bias to the downside on the daily chart that has been in place for a period of time now. And I hope all of you understand what I mean by a bottom, one put in and confirmed by price itself. The reason I am covering myself in this way is that I know how those on this thread like to see all the details of a persons analysis before considering it "valid". But I am make some basic assumptions of the reader here with regard to price patterns, price action, and basic analysis with the indicators like MACD, Stochs, and OBV. Oh yes, understanding what congestion is will prove to be helpful also.