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Biotech / Medical : Are Biotechs Now Overvalued? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Haynes who wrote (3)	3/5/2000 6:10:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14

I would agree that a person buying into a sector fund right now is taking on some extra risk. But I also think that a reasonable amount of research can lead a person to some outstanding values still in biotech-- I own GZMO, KDUS, CIST, CNSI, GLIA, ELN, and SNAP, as well as AVE and SGP. Let's see how they perform. I'll bet it takes awhile for the pharmas to start moving up--but I'd be very disappointed if I had more than one or two stinkers in that line up of biotechs--of course they wont all pay off overnight, but I do not think you could find too many folks who would argue me out of owning, say, Gliatech and Elan at these prices. The others have more speculative appeal, but most will do surprisingly well over time. GZMO is the most frustrating, have owned it since $7, and so hard not to take money off the table, but how can you when you really look into this one--it's the sort of thing a person could retire off of in five years, and like getting Entremed...and then a stealth genomics play for free! Would I want to own FBIOX right now, nah. Or Celera? Or Sequenom? Nah. Or some of the junky pump and dumps-- why bother with momentum. Do your DD, buy some ideas, and see what happens. I would not be buying too many of the genomics plays right now, I am temporarily out of Genset, but that is only because I wanted extra shares of Gliatech for the squeeze.

To: Jim Haynes who wrote (3)	7/15/2000 12:17:29 PM
From: seminole	Respond to of 14

Jim <<<Is the biotech sector as a whole undervalued, fairly valued or overvalued - and why? >>> I agree with everyone else. Biotech may be overvalued but the companies I buy are undervalued???? I believe biotechs are overvalued due to the extra demand created buy momentum investors. I believe biotechs are overvalued because growth investors (with a flat DOW) are chasing biotechs as one of the few growth options. However, the trend is up and we have a chance to run to an extreme overvalued point. I would like to take that ride. I watch the IPO market to indicate overvaluation. I watch mergers and takeovers to indicate undervaluation. Still, I am about 95% invested in biotechs. I plan to watch the strenght of the summer rally and watch how the biotechs approach the yearly high.