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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: American Spirit who wrote (21687)3/5/2000 10:56:00 PM
From: Stuart T  Respond to of 57584
 
Welcome back Spirit - Your views on the board were missed.

Fiber seems to be were it's at during the upcoming week with the big conference.

Play safe and diversify



To: American Spirit who wrote (21687)3/5/2000 11:41:00 PM
From: Sye Walsh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
An RODC must read:

ROBODOC Clinical Trial Status

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Robodoc Clinical Results:
Domestic Multi-Center Trial
European Trial

William L. Bargar, M.D., Dr. med. Andre Bauer, Anthony DiGioia, M.D., Roderick Turner, M.D., Jeffery K. Taylor, M.D., Joseph McCarthy, M.D., Dana Mears, M.D.

Abstract

Integrated Surgical Systems has developed an image-directed robotic system to augment the performance of human surgeons in orthopaedic surgery, initially targeted at cementless total hip replacement surgery. The total system consists of an interactive CT-based presurgical planning component and a surgical system consisting of a robot, redundant motion monitoring, and man-machine interface components. In Vitro experiments conducted with this system have demonstrated an order-of magnitude improvement in implant fit and placement accuracy, compared to standard manual preparation techniques. Twenty-six successful robot-assisted operations have been performed on dogs and fifty-one robot-assisted operations have been performed in a US FDA-authorized clinical trial on humans. In European trials conducted at the Berufsgenossenschaftliche Unfallklinik (BGU) 120 human patients have been successfully operated.

Introduction and Background

The long term success of cementless total hip replacement has been attributed in part to how well the femoral component fits the femur. Appropriate fit can be accomplished by choosing the correct size and type of implant, positioning the implant appropriately in the femur, and preparing the implant-bone interface accurately. In 1992 the concept was introduced of using CT-scan image data, a pre-op planning computer workstation, and a robot arm with a high speed milling device, (the ROBODOC© Surgical Assistant System) in an effort to improve these three aspects of cementless total hip replacement. The effort has evolved chronologically in four phases:

Phase I--Limited Feasibility Study 1986-87
Phase II--In Vitro Development 1987-89
Phase III--In Vivo Development 1989-91
Phase IV--Clinical Applications (US) 1991-present

In Phase I an automated machine language was applied successfully to tasking an industrial robot to mill simplified shapes in synthetic bone. In Phase II an imaging system was developed based upon 3D registered data that retains pixel size accuracy for registration. Also a computer workstation was developed to preplan prosthesis selection and positioning. Human and canine cadaver bones were milled in vitro using a modified industrial robot to accuracy's equal to or better than implant tolerances. In Phase III specifications were developed for a surgical robot designed to operate in the sterile OR environment. A canine study of 26 patients was successfully performed. The improved precision was verified. No untoward risks were identified.

In Phase IV a ten patient human feasibility study was completed in California. No unforeseen risks were identified. All surgeries were successfully completed. A 300 patient randomized multi-center trial in the United States is under way. We are now reporting the interim results of that study.

Method

Patients to be included in the domestic study had to be candidates for cementless total hip replacement. In general this meant that they were usually younger, more active and/or overweight than usual total hip replacement patients. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were utilized.

The inclusion criteria is: the patient has severely disabled joint(s) due to primary or secondary degenerative osteo, rheumatoid, or post-traumatic arthritis; avascular necrosis of the femoral head; or acute femoral neck fracture. The patient is able to understand and is willing to comply with the requirements of the study, the patient is eligible to receive the total hip replacement systems validated for use with the ROBODOC Surgical Assistant System, the patient must be at least 21 years of age, but no older than 80 years of age, and lastly, the patient signs an informed consent document specific to this study. The exclusion criteria is: the patient has an active systemic infection or any active local infection in or near the operative hip joint or near the distal femur, the patient requires a revision of a previous total hip replacement, the patient has a metallic implant in the operative hemi-pelvis or femur, which may interfere with scanning or operations, the patient has a pathological skeletal condition (severe osteoporosis, Paget's disease, or renal osteolystrophy), the patient has a knee width measuring greater than 18 cm and/or a femur length measuring less than 30 cm on the operative limb, the patient has any systemic illness or physical impairment which would render him/her unable to perform post-op rehabilitation, the patient has a significant mental disorder, is pregnant, is obese (as defined by 1983 Metropolitan Life Standards), is a prisoner or transient, has a history of drug/alcohol abuse within 12 months prior to screening for study entry, or if the patient refuses blinded randomization into the study.

After the informed consent was obtained the patients were then randomized into either the Control Group or the ROBODOC Group.

Three centers have contributed to this study to date, Each center had 2-4 surgeons participating. As of January 1, 1995, ninety-four patients (51 ROBODOC, 43 control) have completed a minimum 3 months follow-up.

The average age was 52 for the ROBODOC Group and 55 for the Control Group. There were 40 males and 11 females in the ROBODOC Group. In the Control Group there were 33 males and 10 females. Osteoarthritis predominated in both groups with 54% in the ROBODOC group and 58% in the Control Group. Avascular necrosis comprised 21% of the ROBODOC Group and 15% of the Control Group.

The patients were evaluated using the modified Harris Hip Scale, the Hip Society Rating System and the SF-36 Health Survey. Surgical time, blood loss, and length of stay were also monitored. The post-op radiographs were evaluated by the principal investigators using strict criteria to determine the following: the correctness of implant size, the appropriateness of the implant position and the presence of any reaming artifacts. Two different implants have been used so far in the study, the Osteolock (Howmedica) and the AML (Depuy). Patients were grouped by implant type and reviewed separately according to implant specific criteria.

Results

The modified Harris Hip Score at 3 months averaged 72.0 for the ROBODOC group and 68.0 for the control group (NS). The average surgery time was longer for the ROBODOC group (266 minutes vs. 125 minutes, >.0001). Average length of stay was not significantly different (7.00 days ROBODOC vs. 7.16 days control). The SF-36 mean scales scores are equivalent in all categories but Role Emotional for which there is no interpretation. Complications included (ROBODOC vs. Control): intraoperative femoral fractures (0 vs. 2), post-op dislocations (3 vs. 2), DVT (I vs. 1), PE (0 vs. I), partial sciatic nerve palsy (1 vs. 2), and death secondary to CVA (1 vs. O). Dr. Charles Engh's, Anderson Clinic, Arlington, VA., and Dr. William Bargar's, Sutter General, Sacramento, CA., radiographic review of the AML's showed significant differences. Comparing ROBODOC to control: correct size (100% vs. 78%), correct position (97% vs. 61%) and reaming defects (3% vs. 14%). These differences are significant at p<.05 level (Chi-Sq.).

Discussion

Clinical comparisons (e.g. Harris Score) at this short follow-up did not show any significant differences. The radiographic review did, however, show improvements in sizing, and positioning in the ROBODOC group. These factors have been shown to be surrogate indictors of long term outcome and suggest an improvement for long term clinical results using this technique.

Application to total knee replacement and use and revision total hip replacement have begun. Collaborative efforts have also been initiated to develop other non-orthopaedic applications.

The successful linking of the fields of imaging and robotics has resulted in a new tool for precision in surgery. The original application of this device to cementless total hip replacement has shown the technology to be of benefit. It is through the development of additional applications that this new category of testing of surgical "smart tools" will allow the operating room of the future to provide improved outcomes that make this technology cost effective.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Addendum: European Trial

In 1991, first contacts between the Berufsgenossenschaftliche Unfallklinik Frankfurt am Main and Integrated Surgical Systems (ISS) in Sacramento, the developers of ROBODOC, were established. Since that time, parallel to the ongoing Phase 2 and 3 study in the US, transition of this technology to the European market was discussed and planned.

Apart from the FDA approval, German regulations required the T?V testing of the System, which, contrary to the FDA procedure, did not challenge the efficacy of the system, but put emphasis on its technical safety. Regarding the System as a tool in the surgeons control, its use and evaluation of its benefits were left to the surgeon's judgment.

The major issue in the transfer of ROBODOC to Germany was the different surgical approach. While many American surgeons operate total hips through a posterior approach, with the patient in a lateral decubitus position, most German and European surgeons prefer the anterior-lateral approach. The patient is positioned supine on the OR table. Extensive testing led to modifications of the fixator arm of the robot, the bone motion monitor and the lower leg holder. Pins were placed and found in a different orientation, so software had to be adapted.

After obtaining T?V certification, the System was installed at the BGU in Frankfurt in July 1994. The first two cases, performed in the same week, had to be aborted due to inaccurate CT data. These cases nevertheless proved the safety of the system. The computer detected an error in table motion of the "somewhat dated" scanner during pin finding. Lacking accuracy in pin data, the computer refused to complete the procedure. The first successful surgery was performed in August 1994. Subsequently 124 cases were attempted, 120 of these cases were successfully completed. Two cases had to be aborted due to pin loosening. One case had to be canceled due to a limitation identified in the software which could not accommodate a deformed trochanter. Another was canceled due to a non critical software bug. All these cases could be completed by hand, although the preoperatively planned implant sizes could not be manually executed by the surgeon.

Results

The series of 120 successfully operated patients showed no major complications related to the use of the robot. While, OR time in the first 15 cases averaged 180 minutes, the 105 succeeding patients were operated in an average time of 120 minutes, and the fastest cases took 99 minutes. The overall complication rate was lower than in comparable cementless series previously published. While BETTIN 1993 reported a 33.7% rate, EHALL published in 1992 a 16.6% rate. BGU's rate of complications was 11.6%. This included a 3.3% rate of deep vein thrombosis, a 3.3% rate of pulmonary embolism, a 2.5% rate of nerve palsy and a 2.5% rate of postoperative dislocation. No fractures occurred, a rather common complication in cementless hip replacement. In all robot cases, the preoperatively chosen implant could be implanted, and postoperative x-rays showed that positioning of the implant was performed with a high degree of exactness when related to the preoperative plan. Consequently, immediate full weight bearing was recommended to the patients instead of, as is common at the BGU in cementless hip procedures, walking on crutches for ten weeks.

The series of 120 patients in Germany showed that robot assisted surgery can be performed without exposing the patients to any specific risks; that postoperative complications are lower then in comparative series; that OR times, once the initial learning phase is over, are not intolerably long; that exact transformation of preoperative planning gives strength to the hope, that a better long-term result can be achieved than in standard manual procedures

cor.ssh.edu

Also

Add one more Sale of Neuromate.....Dec 22....Italy

I am working on some kind of look at earnings, I have run into some questions that I will try to get answers to. Sye



To: American Spirit who wrote (21687)3/5/2000 11:46:00 PM
From: Sye Walsh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Spirit,
Hang in there, The tide will turn, it always does.
Sye



To: American Spirit who wrote (21687)3/6/2000 5:54:00 AM
From: Rande Is  Respond to of 57584
 
Welcome back, Spirit.

We're all big boys and girls here. . . and therefore responsible for our own plays. Your input was and is helpful, but ultimately we are the ones pressing that button.

'Attaway to get back up on that horse!

Rande Is



To: American Spirit who wrote (21687)3/6/2000 12:43:00 PM
From: Joe Smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Spirit--So nice to have you back. When we look back at this time a year or two from now, I think that we will see that this was a great opportunity to start accumulating value stocks. People have given up on them. One thing I have learned from this thread is that just because I know that a trend will occur sometime in the near future does not mean that I have to start playing that now. So I am still out of OLB's, financials, retail, value etc. But this is a great time to start making a shopping list with your help and relying on my own instincts as well as the extremely nimble players on this board, I will be ready to move some of my money in that direction... when the time is right.



To: American Spirit who wrote (21687)3/7/2000 8:44:00 AM
From: christopher  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Spirit,

I know you don't want to even think about retail these days but I saw this PR from Motley Fool I thought was interesting...I keep a closer eye on retail thanks in part to some of your posts, I think its time is coming...I am keeping a close eye on ANF & SHRP in the retail sector...SHRP is making serious headway with their net business division that I like...

A Look at Abercrombie & Fitch
A non-tech Rule Maker?

By Matt Richey (TMF Verve)
March 6, 2000

Ain't technology wonderful? Thanks to the Internet and mobile computing, I'm typing
this report far away from the confines of Fool HQ in comfortably cool, sunny...
Milwaukee. (Yes, believe it or not, the weather is fantastic up here.)

Armed with a Dell notebook computer, Nokia cell phone, and Palm VII, I can do my
"work" from the comfort of an overstuffed couch with my feet propped up. This is the
life, Fools. Is it any wonder the market is so handsomely rewarding the companies that
are making this new way of life possible? Even after the Nasdaq's mind-boggling 85%
run last year, it's already up another 20% year-to-date. QQQ's (AMEX: QQQ) anyone?

Even so, this morning I still had to do mundane tasks like... get dressed, eat, shave.
Most aspects of the so-called Old Economy aren't going away anytime soon. Take, for
example, the getting dressed part of my day. My grunge-around-the-house ensemble
includes Gap (NYSE: GPS) mesh athletic pants and an Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:
ANF) tee shirt. Here are two solid companies with numerous Rule Maker
characteristics: strong brands, repeat-purchase business models, healthy profit
margins, a penchant for cash, and sales growth a plenty -- all located in a mall
conveniently near you. Best of all, these stocks are hated -- and I mean loathed -- by
the market these days.

Here's a cross section of apparel retailers, comparing Friday's closing prices to their
52-week highs:

Company 3/3 Price 52-Week High % Off High
American Eagle $27 $58 1/2 -53.8%
Abercrombie $13 7/8 $50 3/4 -72.7%
Ann Taylor $20 3/4 $53 1/16 -60.9%
Gap $45 1/2 $53 3/4 -15.3%
The Limited $33 13/16 $50 5/8 -33.2%

Why is it a good thing that the market cares not for the retailers? Because it gives us
the chance to invest in great companies at a better-than-usual price. Most of the
time, investing in Rule Makers demands that we pay up because we invest in
companies that are obviously the best of the best. But every once in a while, even
great companies get kicked down to Wall Street's clearance rack. That's the current
situation with Gap and especially with Abercrombie. Yes, there are risks, but the
payoff can be quite large when you buy 'em when everybody else hates 'em.

First though, let's look at the risks and figure out why the market has pounded these
issues so mercilessly. It all boils down to just one thing -- rising interest rates -- but
this one thing puts the hurt on retail apparel stocks in three distinct ways: First,
because of our soaring economy, Alan Greenspan has promised to increase short-term
rates until consumer demand cools (read: less mall traffic). For retailers, the obvious
implication is slower sales growth.

Second, our wonderful economy has yielded the lowest unemployment in 30 years.
That's a marvelous thing for you and me, but if you're a retailer in need of employees
for your new stores, then a tight labor market means higher wage expenses and more
frequent employee turnover. Both of those things threaten to squeeze profit margins.
Third, higher interest rates make mall dwellers think twice about whipping out the
plastic for their umpteenth pair of designer jeans. That's another impediment to sales
growth. All told, the current interest rate environment is a major negative for apparel
retailers that rely upon discretionary consumer income.

Okay, so we now know why these stocks are down. Namely, the problem is an external
one. That's key. If these companies had crappy merchandise, shoddy management, or
other such internal problems, then I wouldn't touch 'em with a ten-foot pole. But
that's not the case at all. Gap is an almost ubiquitous default fashion solution.
Abercrombie is the most appealing fashion brand in America. These are fantastic
businesses. As long as your investment horizon is at least three years -- and it better
be, Fool! -- then the top-quality retailers are pretty compelling. Comparing Gap and
Abercrombie, take a look at the financial results from the just-completed fourth
quarter:

Gap Inc. Abercrombie
Sales Growth 27.4% 20.8%
Gross Margins 41.5% 51.9%
Net Margins 10.7% 20.9%
Cash-to-Debt Ratio 0.47 No Debt
Flow Ratio 1.10 0.74

As you can see, Abercrombie kicks Gap's butt on every one of these metrics except
for sales growth. And, not surprisingly, it was this slower-than-expected sales growth
that caused Abercrombie shares to implode after reporting earnings in mid-February,
falling from an already-beaten-down $21 to $14 more recently. Abercrombie's
fourth-quarter same-store sales growth came in at only 3%, compared to 26% last
year. (For all of fiscal 2000, same-store sales were 10% versus 35% for the year
prior.) There was no mercy for the obviously tough comparison that Abercrombie
faced. At $14 per share, Abercrombie's market value is a mere $1.5 billion, compared
to $40 billion for Gap. By any measure, Abercrombie is cheap, selling for less than 10x
trailing earnings versus 35x for Gap.

Why the disparity in valuations? As the Fool's own Robert Fredeen notes in his Gap
Research Coverage -- a great read, by the way -- the specialty retail industry is
characterized by volatility due to the fickle nature of fashion and the aforementioned
reliance on interest rates. A small retailer like Abercrombie, which has only 250 stores,
is prone to having its business snatched away by a trendy competitor. Thus, investors
heavily discount future earnings, a process that reveals itself in the low earnings
multiple.

In contrast, Gap has proven its ability to grow sales steadily for years, despite
changes and fashion and the economy at large. Part of Gap's secret to success is its
diversification strategy through multiple concepts -- Gap Stores, BabyGap, Gap Kids,
GapBody, Banana Republic, and Old Navy. With more than 2,900 stores, Gap is almost
the Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) of apparel. That's what makes Gap a true Rule Maker
deserving a premium valuation.

But Abercrombie shows the promise of a Cash Prince. During 1999, the company
surpassed our traditional Rule Maker minimum hurdle of $1 billion in annual sales.
Overall, its financial quality surpasses our Rule Maker standards with kudos. The last
time we put Abercrombie to the test on our Rule Maker Ranker, it cleaned up with a
Top Tier score of 52. If the company can make improvements on the women's side of
its Abercrombie & Fitch stores and successfully introduce some new store concepts,
then there could be substantial upside at the current price.

Let me reiterate, the Rule Maker philosophy is always to focus first and foremost on
business quality, not price. But if we can find great quality at a great price, so much
the better! And in a world where most Rule Makers fall under the broad umbrella of
technology, it's still quite prudent to be diversified among some excellent non-tech
companies.

One final announcement... per Zeke's conclusion on Friday, we've decided to invest
this month's $500 savings in American Express (NYSE: AXP). As usual, in the next
five business days, we'll make the trade.

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